Bills Tight End Preview: The Best We’ve Ever Had — So Why Am I Still Complaining?
I have been bitching about the Buffalo Bills’ tight end position for what feels like my entire life. And if you grew up watching this team during the same era I did, you understand why.
Lonnie Johnson. Mark Campbell. Robert Royal. Scott Chandler. The congressman guy. Pete Metzelaars.
Those aren’t necessarily terrible football players. They’re just names that remind you how low the bar traditionally was for tight ends in Buffalo. For years, I’d watch other teams destroy defenses with tight ends and wonder the same thing:
Why can’t the Bills ever have one of those guys?
Eventually, Brandon Beane actually tried to fix it. The Bills drafted Dawson Knox, eventually paid him, and then used a first-round pick to go get Dalton Kincaid.
And here’s the funny part.
Statistically speaking, we’re probably watching the best collection of tight ends the Bills have ever had.
So naturally...
I’m still bitching about them.
Dalton Kincaid: The Numbers Say I’m Wrong
This is where my criticism of Dalton Kincaid gets complicated. Because some of the advanced numbers say I’m an idiot.
When Kincaid was actually running routes last season, he was ridiculously efficient. He averaged 11.7 yards per target and roughly 2.7–2.8 yards per route run.
Among tight ends, he ranked first in yards per target, first in yards per route run, first in targets per route run and first in first downs per route run in one advanced-stat breakdown.
Those aren’t good numbers.
Those are top tier numbers for the down the field TE I want.
So what’s my problem?
I need to actually see it for an entire season.
Kincaid played only 12 games last year, caught 39 passes for 571 yards and five touchdowns, and was on the field for only about 38% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. That’s insane when we’re talking about a former first-round pick producing at that level when he’s actually involved.
And maybe I need to slightly change one of my biggest criticisms of Kincaid. I’ve complained that he doesn’t stretch the field enough or give me enough explosive plays. The advanced numbers suggest there’s more happening there than I’m giving him credit for.
But that’s also why I’m frustrated.
Enough with talking about what Dalton Kincaid could be.
I want 15, 16, 17 games of it.
I want those yards-per-route-run numbers to turn into 70 catches and 900 yards. I want a playoff opponent spending the week figuring out how the hell they’re going to cover him. I’m sick of hearing how he’s put on muscle or that thigh doctor guy on twitter is showing extreme close-ups of his calf.
At some point, availability has to become part of the evaluation.
And Then There’s Dawson Knox
Knox is almost the opposite. I completely understand his value more than I actually get excited about it. He’s physical. He’s a very good blocker. Josh Allen trusts him. He’ll occasionally make an athletic play that reminds you why Buffalo invested so much money in him.
But week after week?
One catch.
Two catches.
Maybe a touchdown near the goal line.
Then you don’t hear his name again.
Knox played all 17 games last season and finished with 36 catches for 417 yards and four touchdowns.
2.1 catches per game.
And that’s basically my entire Dawson Knox argument. He’s useful. He’s valuable. I absolutely want him on my football team, albeit he makes too much. I just don’t think opposing defensive coordinators are losing sleep Tuesday night wondering how they’re going to stop Dawson Knox.
The Pat Moran Argument
Which brings me to my buddy/frienemy Pat Moran. Pat and I have seemingly had the same argument about this position 4,000 times. Whenever I bitch about the tight ends, Pat has his favorite comeback:
“Joe, the tight ends had 93 catches last year!”
Great.
I’ve never understood why combining everybody at a position suddenly makes the number sound impressive.
If I told you:
“The Bills’ top three wide receivers combined for 93 catches last season.”
You’d think something had gone horribly wrong.
But if I say:
“The Bills’ three tight ends combined for 93 catches!”
Suddenly we’re throwing a parade?
It’s still 93 catches!
Why does one sound terrible and the other is supposed to end the argument? I’m not looking for aggregate production from the position.
I’m looking for impact. I don’t want to have to add three guys together to explain why the Bills have good tight ends.
I want one guy who scares the shit out of a defense.
A good hand…Jackson Hawes
In wrestling, there’s a term for someone who’s a “good hand.” Basically, you do a bunch of things. You’re reliable. You know your role. You’re not changing the world, but you’re useful. You’re enhancement talent.
That’s kind of how I look at Jackson Hawes right now.
We know why Buffalo drafted him.
The guy can block.
He’s basically another offensive lineman when he’s out there, and that has real value in this offense. But every once in a while, Hawes catches a football.
As a rookie, Hawes averaged 1.82 yards per route run on 102 routes while playing roughly 43% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps.
Tiny sample. I’m not trying to turn Jackson Hawes into George Kittle here.
But if Hawes is going to be on the field because he’s such a good blocker, occasionally make the defense pay for treating him like an offensive tackle wearing an eligible number. Maybe he catches one or two balls a game and that’s his ceiling. Maybe there’s a little more receiving ability there than we expected.
Either way, he definitely feels like the heir apparent to Dawson Knox.
And maybe that’s all Hawes ever becomes: a really good hand. A guy who blocks his ass off, catches a couple of passes when you need him to and does all the dirty work that doesn’t show up in the box score.
There’s absolutely value in that.
Just don’t try selling me a good hand as the next George Kittle.
We’ve Come a Long Way From Robert Royal
That’s ultimately what makes this position so weird for me going into the season.I’ve spent most of my Bills fandom begging them to address tight end.
Now they have.
They’ve invested draft capital.
They’ve invested money.
They used a first-round pick on Kincaid.
They gave Knox a major contract.
They drafted Hawes and immediately found a role for him.
And statistically, this is probably the best tight end room the Buffalo Bills have ever had. We’ve come a long way from Lonnie Johnson, Mark Campbell and Robert Royal.
Yet somehow I’m still sitting here saying:
I want more.
Maybe that’s unfair. Especially since this team did love to use different formations last year. You’d think they’d have more WRs on the field with the addition of Moore.
Maybe Josh Allen has changed what I expect from every position on this offense. But I’m not comparing Buffalo’s tight ends to the tight ends I watched here 20 years ago anymore. I’m comparing them to the tight ends on championship offenses.
Kincaid’s advanced numbers tell me the receiving weapon might already be there. Now stay healthy and turn efficiency into volume.
Knox gives Buffalo blocking, toughness and reliability. But I’d like more than two catches a Sunday.
Hawes might be an elite blocking tight end. Now let’s see whether there’s another level to his receiving game.
And please don’t tell me they combined for 93 catches.
I don’t want three tight ends who combine to look great on a spreadsheet.
I want one of them to have a playoff game where we’re not talking about blocking grades, yards per route run or combined receptions afterward.
We’re just saying:
Holy shit, that guy took over the game.
I’ve waited most of my Bills-watching life for Buffalo to have that kind of tight end. For once, they might actually have the talent in the room to give me one.
Now I’d like to see them stop teasing us with the idea and actually make it happen
Viral Buffalo Tweet of the Week
Ah yes.
“We are in on it.”
Or its close cousin:
“We have lots of conversations.”
At this point, it’s basically part of the Brandon Beane experience.
I’m not even going to use this space to bash Beane for not getting a deal done. From Waddle to Wilson and seemingly every big-name receiver who becomes available, we hear some version of the same thing:
The Bills were involved.
The Bills called.
The Bills had conversations.
The Bills were aggressive.
Fine. That’s his job.
What I’d actually love to know is: How does this stuff keep getting out?
Because one of the defining characteristics of the Bills after Sean McDermott arrived in 2017 was how buttoned-up the organization became. McDermott came in preaching culture, accountability and doing things a certain way. The organization underwent a massive overhaul almost immediately. (NFL.com) and rumor has it that McDermott told everyone the following:
If you leak anything, you are fired
Yet somehow, when Brandon Beane is in on something, we sure seem to hear about it.
Who is leaking it?
Is it Beane? Someone else in the Bills front office? The other team? The player’s agent? Maybe it changes from rumor to rumor. I have absolutely no idea.
But I do know this:
Brandon Beane understands the media game.
This is a GM who regularly appears on national BroCasts and shows, who has never exactly been shy about defending his roster-building publicly, and who once got pissed enough about PFF criticism that former PFF analyst Sam Monson said Beane threatened to pull the Bills’ business after PFF criticized the Matt Kalil signing. According to Monson, the episode actually led PFF to change how it handled its free-agent grading. (Sporting News)
That’s not some executive hiding in a bunker who has no idea what people are saying about him. Beane knows the conversation. He knows how to work the conversation.
And whether these leaks are coming from Buffalo or somewhere else, they certainly don’t hurt the image that has followed him for years:
Brandon Beane is always aggressive.
Even when the aggressive move never actually happens.
Stathead of the week: 26
There’s been a lot of talk this summer about Kaleb Elarms-Orr potentially pushing for a starting job at linebacker. You guys know how much I hate hyping up rookies, especially day 3 guys. Why? Because asking a Day 3 rookie to immediately become an NFL starting linebacker is still a pretty big ask.
So I decided to crunch the numbers.
Since 2016, only 26 rookie linebackers selected on Day 3 of the NFL Draft have played at least 40% of their team’s defensive snaps during their rookie season.
That’s the group Elarms-Orr would be joining if he earns a significant role immediately. Only 5 of those players have had 70% of defensive snaps
It doesn’t mean he can’t do it. It also doesn’t mean the Bills shouldn’t give him the opportunity if he proves he’s their best option. But there’s a difference between being an exciting fourth-round pick who looks good in August and being ready to handle hundreds of NFL defensive snaps from Week 1.
The question isn’t whether Elarms-Orr has been impressive.
It’s how often players drafted where he was actually become major contributors immediately.
And historically, that’s a much tougher road.
DAD SHOTS
—I had a nugget last week about Tim Graham’s story on the grass at the new stadium and went into new stadiums and how teams do in them.
But I really didn’t get into the actual grass issue and reaction to it.
The obstructed-view stuff is one thing. As much as it sucks, there’s at least an element of buyer beware when you’re talking about where somebody chose to buy a seat.
The field is completely different.
The players are the ones who have to work on it.
Matt Bové did a good piece this week actually talking to the players, and it definitely didn’t sound like everybody was thrilled. Bradley Chubb basically confirmed what we’d already heard, saying, “whatever you heard is accurate.” That came after Graham reported that one player was considerably less diplomatic about the condition of the field. (WKBW 7 News Buffalo)
Obviously, it’s a work in progress. Blah, blah, blah. We know.
And I also realize that if you say anything remotely negative about the new stadium on X, a certain portion of Bills fans react like you just insulted their first-born child.
But this really isn’t some unprecedented disaster either…at least not yet.
NFL stadiums have grass problems.
Pittsburgh has been dealing with them forever. Acrisure Stadium had enough problems recently that players complained about the surface, and the Steelers replaced the grass this year with a different variety designed to better handle the abuse that field takes. (ESPN.com)
It feels like every couple of years some NFL stadium in the preseason randomly becomes the field everyone is talking about because guys are slipping, chunks of sod are coming up or the grass looks like my parents backyard after they forgot about it for three weeks.
Hopefully that’s all this is.
I’m far less interested in whether the grass looks pretty on television than whether the guys actually playing on it think it’s safe. If they’re telling you something isn’t right, that’s when it’s worth paying attention.
—A footnote on the Ed Oliver tragedy involving his son. Since the story was broken, there’s definitely been evidence that Bills reporters knew what happened and collectively put a lid on the story. Matt Parrino admitted on his podcast that he knew about it. There’s also a screen grab of Jeremy White talking to Tony Farmer- who broke the story and is definitely not making friends on line- confirming he heard about it last month. And frankly, if some of them did know and chose not to report it, I don’t have an issue with that.
There’s a line here that I think gets lost sometimes. Ed Oliver is a public figure because he plays defensive tackle for the Buffalo Bills. That doesn’t automatically make the most painful moments involving his family part of the public domain.
Now, if you want to debate why reporters stayed quiet…journalistic judgment, basic empathy, fear of losing access or some combination of the three…I’ll listen. That’s actually an interesting media discussion. There’s rumors about the SF media knowing about the head coach getting into a serious accident and the media bottling it up. Same goes when the Bills media didn’t touch the Kim Pegula health issues until Jessie Pegula wrote a post for Players’ Tribune.
The Bills have now publicly acknowledged the loss and said they’ll continue supporting Oliver and his family. (Buffalo Bills) Beyond that, I’m not sure we’re entitled to anything else unless he’s taking an extended break like for the entire season or it is somehow still being investigated.
For now… “personal reasons” should be enough.
—I don’t know what’s going on with my social media presence and I hate even using the word presence because it makes this sound way more important than it is. But I’m currently posting on Bluesky, X and Threads, and somehow I’ve decided each one needs to serve a different purpose in my life.
Bluesky feels like it’s dying a little bit. Maybe it’ll pick back up when the Bills season starts. Maybe there just aren’t enough people there yet. Maybe not enough famous people. I don’t know. I still like it, but lately it feels like walking into a bar you used to love and realizing half the regulars stopped showing up.
Then there’s X.
I’ve made my feelings about X pretty clear. I think the owner is insane and a detriment to the world. Yet I’m still there, which makes me either a hypocrite or basically every person who has ever complained about a social media platform while continuing to open the app 37 times a day. I’m also over thirst traps that meet AI alterations which is all over my “for you” tab and yes I may have just outed myself as a thirst trap liker but I’m denying that!
And then there’s Threads.
I joined a couple years ago, left, and recently started thinking about it again after hearing Jemele Hill say Threads reminded her of old-school Twitter. That immediately appealed to me.
Of course, then I started thinking: If I’m going to be this cognizant of who owns these giant corporations….am I really accomplishing anything by leaving Elon Musk’s platform and running into the loving arms of Meta?
So, naturally, my solution is to use all three.
Which is incredibly annoying.
I’m trying to at least give each one its own identity. Threads is becoming my Thread of the Day place. Something that actually works as a conversation: Top 10 Bills quarterbacks of all time. Rank these guys. Debate this. Tell me why I’m an idiot.
Bluesky has somehow become my Instagram-lite. More personal stuff. Pictures of the kids. Random pieces of my life. Bills thoughts sprinkled in.
And X?
I’m basically a reply guy who occasionally retweets something about how terribly this country is being run. So there you have it. My completely unnecessary three-platform social media strategy:
Threads: Let’s argue about Bills quarterbacks.
Bluesky: Here’s a picture of my kid.
X: We’re all doomed.
Follow me everywhere At Buffalowins.
—I was at Rivercrest, the bar around the corner from me. It’s always a great spot for food and watching a game, and right now they’re doing Restaurant Week… three courses for 30 bucks. Not bad when you’re feeding a family and everything now costs roughly your rent.
Anyway, I’m sitting there with the family when I look up at the TV and YES Network has a segment with chefs preparing some of the food you can get at the stadium.
And because apparently I’m incapable of just eating dinner without turning something into a television pitch as an out of work TV producer, I immediately thought:
Why don’t the Bills and Sabres do this?
I know how stadium food usually gets promoted. Invite some influencers down. Put a giant sandwich in front of them. They take a bite, make the obligatory “OH MY GOD” face and tell us it’s incredible.
Or bring in food mooch Mike Harrington for a free meal.
But why not make an actual little cooking show?
Think Mr. Food, except Buffalo sports.
Give me a five-minute weekly segment from Highmark Stadium or KeyBank Center. Have one of the chefs show us how they make an item that’s actually sold in the building.
“Today we’re making the Mafia Meatball Sub from Section 127.”
Show me the ingredients. Show me how it’s prepared. Tell me where the idea came from. Tell me how many they make during a Bills game. What’s different about cooking 2,000 of something instead of making four of them at home?
Then bring in a Bills or Sabres player to try it. Better yet, occasionally have the player cook it.
Give Josh Allen an apron and tell him to make wings. Put Rasmus Dahlin behind a grill. Have Dion Dawkins invent a sandwich. Let a former player come back and make something from his playing days.
You could even have fans submit recipes, with the winner getting their food sold at the stadium for one game.
And here’s the part that seems obvious to me:
The sponsor is built right into the show.
You have official partners, local restaurants, food distributors, grocery stores and whatever company actually supplies the ingredients at the stadium. Somebody gets a presenting sponsorship, the team gets original content and fans learn something about the food they’re spending $17 on.
Everybody wins.
Well, except Harrington and the influencer who was hoping for a free sandwich.
—Anyone think DJ Moore can duplicate the career-best numbers he put up in Chicago with Justin Fields?
It’s a tall task, especially walking into a new offense with a new quarterback. But that season is also a pretty good reminder that Moore doesn’t exactly need perfect quarterback play to produce. Fields threw for just over 2,500 yards that year, and Moore still went nuts. So yeah, I’m intrigued. I’m not penciling him in for 1,300 yards, but if Buffalo can get him anywhere close to that version of DJ Moore, this offense suddenly looks a hell of a lot more interesting.
—If you’ve been here before, you know I can’t stand Pat McAfee. Stephen A. Smith isn’t exactly a hero of mine, either. But somehow ESPN has accomplished the impossible: they’ve made me even more tired of both of them.
They’re everywhere.
And even if I liked them, I’d still think ESPN was stretching them way too thin.
This is what happens when a sports network increasingly feels like it only cares about football and basketball. Baseball barely gets mentioned on the hot-take shows. Hockey? You have a better chance of seeing the Sabres win the Stanley Cup than getting a lengthy NHL discussion on First Take.
So ESPN isn’t really selling sports anymore. It’s selling personalities.
McAfee talks football on his show, then he’s on College GameDay, then Monday Night Countdown. Stephen A. gives you his take on First Take, then pops up somewhere else to give you another version of the same take.
At some point, I don’t care how entertaining somebody is. I don’t need the same person talking about the same story on three different shows.
—The above tweet is a giant deal.
—I’m intrigued by the Bloodline storyline, but honestly, it’s almost entirely because of Solo. He’s the one guy in the group who doesn’t feel like a recycled NWO 2000 character. He’s genuinely funny, has his own personality, and doesn’t feel like he’s just playing another version of something we’ve already seen. There’s something there with Solo, and I hope WWE realizes it.
My garden is alive!!! Well… parts of it are.
Look at these cucumbers.
Okay, one looks like he has a serious case of blue balls, and the other one is getting there. I’m not saying I’ve suddenly developed a green thumb, but after the way this garden started, I’m counting anything that resembles an actual vegetable as a victory.
—Baby University Is My Personal Hell. Andy is still making me sleep on the floor. So that’s going well.
Bedtime is still the same shit. I sleep on the floor next to his crib while I wait for him to fall asleep, wondering which series of decisions in my life led me to this particular piece of hardwood.
And eating has somehow gotten worse.
Last week we went to the zoo and Andy had a five-alarm meltdown because not only did he not want to eat, he was furious that we were eating.
Apparently if Andy is on a hunger strike, the entire family is expected to participate. But none of that is even the worst part.
The worst part is Baby University.
If you’ve never seen these books, they’re science books for little kids, and they have seemingly every scientific subject imaginable.
Quantum physics. Rocket science. General relativity. Nuclear physics.
You know. Normal bedtime material for a toddler.
And Andy doesn’t want one.
He wants eight of them.
I cannot properly explain how much this particular dad despised science growing up. I was a non-Regents student in high school. I was dumb. Science was basically a C-to-D adventure every quarter from the time I was seven years old.
After sophomore year, when I realized I didn’t have to take another science class, I felt like Andy will presumably feel someday when he finally lets his father sleep in a bed again.
Freedom.
Now, more than 25 years later, science has found me. Every night I’m lying on the floor reading about quantum entanglement to a kid who, hours earlier, tried to prevent his parents from eating lunch at the zoo.
And here’s the best part:
I still don’t understand these fucking books.
The books will be like:
This is a ball.
This ball is going into a hole.
But it can’t fit.
Okay. I’m with you so far.
But this ball represents a quantum particle.
Annnnnnd you lost me.
Maybe that makes me an idiot. Maybe Andy is going to be considerably smarter than his father. In fact, based on my lifetime relationship with science, I’d probably bet on it.
But I’m pretty confident Pat Moran wouldn’t understand this shit either.
And that’s really all the reassurance I need.
—If you made it this far, thank you. Seriously.
I’ll be on Talking Buffalo with Pat Moran on Monday to talk Bills preseason and training camp…which mostly means I’ll be rolling my eyes while Pat either panics about something that doesn’t matter or wildly overhypes someone who will probably never see the field in October.
I also want to thank Store 716 for their support of Joe From Queens. It means a lot to have businesses supporting what I’m trying to build here.
And thank you to everyone who keeps reading, sharing, subscribing, donating, and passing the Substack along to anyone you think might enjoy it. Every share helps this thing grow more than you probably realize.
Have a fabulous week. Enjoy your weekend And please, leave the toilet seat down…per My wife.
Of all the positions on the bills I’m least concerned about the tight end room as long as Kincaid stays healthy ( good luck with that )
Jackson Hawes is a beast and a Yale graduate-I’m biased since my daughter graduated from Yale a few years ago and married a former Yale football player this year -go bulldogs !!!!
I wouldn’t waste a second on X -it’s turned into a racist , bigoted platform and its owner is the biggest racist and antisemitic asshole there is -
My go to platform is blue sky and occasionally threads -
Also agree with you about ESPN -only watch it to see football games-
Looking forward to your radio appearance tomorrow
Go Bills