A quick note: Bills, Takes and Dad Mistakes was supposed to drop Monday, but the Zoom and Tells pushed things back a bit. And since I had some extra time, I figured why not add more stuff? Of course, that turned into more games, more news and more things for me to complain about. So what was supposed to be Monday’s edition has gotten a little bigger. Enjoy!
Sometimes You Have to Go Big Whale Hunting
This week’s main story comes from something I saw on social media involving Joe Marino, who shared a list of players in NFL history who were traded for at least two first-round picks. Nate Geary responded that he’d love for the Bills to trade for a player who commanded that kind of return, and I couldn’t agree more.
It’s an interesting list that goes back decades, with names like Eric Dickerson, Herschel Walker, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford, Micah Parsons and now Jeffery Simmons.
But I want to play devil’s advocate here. How many of these teams actually had an elite quarterback when they made these trades?
Obviously, there are exceptions, but that’s something I think people overlook. When you have someone like Josh Allen, shouldn’t you be MORE willing to make a massive trade? Furthermore, a majority of these QBs were on their rookie deals over the last decade. And before we automatically declare that giving up two first-round picks is some organizational disaster, let’s actually look at what some of those picks became.
In 2018, the Bears traded two first-round picks to the Raiders for Khalil Mack. Those picks became Josh Jacobs and Damon Arnette. Jacobs was terrific, but Arnette lasted just two seasons in Las Vegas.
In 2019, the Rams gave Jacksonville two first-rounders for Jalen Ramsey. Those picks became K’Lavon Chaisson and Travis Etienne. Ramsey helped the Rams win a Super Bowl.
In 2020, Seattle traded two first-rounders for Jamal Adams, and those picks eventually helped the Jets acquire Alijah Vera-Tucker and select Garrett Wilson.
That’s a trade Seattle probably regrets. The Broncos sent two first-rounders to Seattle for Russell Wilson, and those picks became Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon. Another disaster for the team acquiring the veteran.
But then there’s Matthew Stafford. The Rams gave Detroit two first-round picks and Jared Goff, won a Super Bowl immediately, and Detroit turned those first-rounders into part of the packages that landed Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and other assets.
Both teams benefited.
And look at the Deshaun Watson disaster in Cleveland. The Texans turned those three first-round picks and subsequent trades into players including Kenyon Green, Will Anderson Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. So yes, these trades can absolutely blow up in your face, but they can also help win championships. That’s the entire point.
Now look at Micah Parsons. Green Bay gave up two first-round picks and Kenny Clark for one of the four or five best defensive players in football. Unfortunately, Parsons tore his ACL in December 2025. Nobody could have predicted that.
If the Bills acquired Micah Parsons in his prime and he stayed healthy, I’d be looking up parade routes down Delaware Avenue. That’s the kind of player who could completely change a defense.
And now the Bears have done something similar with Jeffery Simmons, giving Tennessee two first-round picks and exchanging additional draft capital. You can say that’s too much, and maybe it is, but I love what Chicago is doing. They’re going for it while Caleb Williams is on his rookie contract. They see an opportunity and they’re trying to maximize it.
Meanwhile, Buffalo had that exact same opportunity with Josh Allen from 2019 through 2021 and didn’t make a significant trade deadline acquisition during those three seasons. There were players available who could have helped this team, and I’m going to explore some of those deals in another Wormhole later this week. I still believe that sitting on their hands during that period was one of the biggest mistakes of the Brandon Beane era.
And here’s something that always drives me crazy about these conversations. Everyone treats first-round draft picks like they’re guaranteed to become great players. They’re not! People still talk about the Sammy Watkins trade as if it was the worst trade in NFL history. Buffalo gave up a future first-round pick to move up in 2014, and Cleveland ended up using the two first-round selections from that deal on Justin Gilbert and Cameron Erving. Both were gone from Cleveland after two seasons. I’m not saying the Watkins trade was brilliant, because it wasn’t, but the Bills at least got a productive receiver for a couple seasons. What exactly did Cleveland get out of those picks? That’s why I hate when people evaluate trades strictly by the number of first-round picks involved.
A first-round pick sounds wonderful until that player turns out to be a bust, or an average starter, or somebody you’re trying to replace three years later. Yes, draft capital has value, and yes, you need young, inexpensive players to keep a roster competitive. But at some point, you have to ask yourself whether those hypothetical future players are worth more than an established superstar who could help you win right now.
And that brings me back to Brandon Beane and the Bills. Josh Allen is 30 years old. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in football, and there’s absolutely no guarantee the Bills will ever have another quarterback this good. Every season that passes is another opportunity gone. I understand that you can’t trade away every draft pick or destroy your salary cap, and I’m certainly not suggesting every blockbuster trade is a good one. But I’m tired of the idea that being patient and protecting future draft picks is somehow always the responsible thing to do. Sometimes the responsible thing is recognizing that you have a franchise quarterback in his prime and doing everything possible to win a championship with him.
The Rams understood that with Stafford. The Bears are trying to take advantage of their opportunity with Williams. Green Bay took a massive swing on Parsons. All of these moves carry risks, but so does doing nothing. Because when the Bills lose in the playoffs and we’re sitting there wondering what would’ve happened if they had one more pass rusher, one more receiver or one more difference-maker on defense, those future first-round picks aren’t going to make anybody feel better.
Sometimes you have to stop worrying about what those picks might become and start worrying about what your team could become if you actually traded them. The Bears are going big whale hunting. I would do just about anything to see Brandon Beane do the same.
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Stathead of the Week: 14
Here’s a stat that I found pretty fascinating, and it says a lot about the Buffalo Bills this season.
Through seven games, the Bills have punted the football just 14 times. That’s two punts per game.