Whenever you have a new head coach, my rule of thumb is that you’re looking for something different. Not just in wins and losses, but in culture, personality, and overall approach.
When Wade Phillips, a pretty lax coach, was canned/quit, the Bills went in the complete opposite direction and hired a drill sergeant in Gregg Williams.
When Doug Marrone, who was an all-around dick to just about everyone, decided to leave town, the Bills wanted a fun-loving guy who would get the players and media excited. Enter Rex Ryan.
When Ryan ran the Bills like his own personal frat house mixed with Brewster’s Millions, the organization decided it needed someone strict, disciplined, and serious. Enter Sean McDermott.
And when McDermott, depending on which stories you believe, became too wound up, too controlling, and too much of a micromanager, the Bills once again went in the opposite direction. This time, they wanted a players’ coach. Enter Joe Brady.
And let me tell you something: If Brady gets canned at some point, you can almost guarantee the Bills will go looking for an experienced veteran head coach who has been around the block.
That’s the cycle. One coach’s biggest personality flaw becomes the exact thing the next guy is hired to fix.
Football always gets this reputation as a sport that’s all about the feels. The emotions, the energy, the culture, the chemistry, and whether the players look like they’re having a good time.
It’s also a sport where narratives are dictated by the media. And depending on who their sources are, some reporters aren’t going to bite the hand that feeds them. Instead, they’ll ask for another helping.
Joe Brady taking his shirt off and the locker room being happy after a win doesn’t mean dick in the grand scheme of things.
I’m sure everyone had a wonderful time. Good for them. But having fun in the locker room doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a better football team. It doesn’t tell me whether the offense is more efficient, whether the defense has improved, or whether the Bills are actually playing better football than they were under Sean McDermott.
That’s where the numbers come in.
Forget the shirtless celebrations, the good vibes, and all the stories about how much happier everyone supposedly is.
What are the numbers telling us right now?
To me, the Buffalo Bills are still a good football team. But are they really that different from what we’ve watched over the past six seasons?
My answer is no.
I don’t see some revolutionary new version of the Bills under Joe Brady. I see an offense that continues to perform at a high level, much like it did under Sean McDermott. They’re still moving the football, still scoring points, and still relying heavily on Josh Allen to make everything work.
If anything, the biggest difference I’ve noticed is that the defense has become more of a liability.
And that’s what makes this whole conversation interesting to me. We can talk all day about the change in culture, the happier locker room, and how much fun everyone is supposedly having. But if the offense is still performing and the defense is becoming more of a problem, how much has actually changed?
That’s why I wanted to go through the numbers from 2020 through the first six games of 2026 and see whether the statistics support what I’m watching every Sunday.
Because right now, I see a good football team. I’m just not convinced I’m seeing a different one.
Part 1: The Offense — Same Old Josh Allen?
Let’s start with the offense.
For the past six seasons, the Bills have consistently been one of the NFL’s better offensive teams. They’ve changed offensive coordinators, receivers, running backs, and philosophies, but one thing has remained relatively constant.
Josh Allen.
And when you have a quarterback like Allen, you’re going to score points regardless of whether your head coach is Sean McDermott or Joe Brady.
Consider this: From 2020 through 2025, the Bills averaged between 26.5 and 31.3 points per game. That’s six consecutive seasons of high-level offensive production.
Now, through six games in 2026, they’re averaging 32.8.
That’s the highest average of the seven seasons we’re looking at.
