The Bills and Patriots meet again Sunday, and New England enters the matchup in a much different spot than it probably expected to be three weeks into the season.
The Patriots are 1-2, Drake Maye hasn’t looked like the same quarterback he was a year ago, and New England is already staring at a potentially important early-season AFC East game. On the other side, the Patriots defense has shown some promising signs with an aggressive, blitz-heavy approach.
When I reached out to ESPN’s Mike Reiss looking for someone to talk Patriots with, he recommended Ethan Hurwitz of On SI.
Hurwitz, who can be found on X at @HurwitzSports, joined Joe From Queens to talk about Maye’s early-season struggles, New England’s offense, the Patriots defense, their former Bills, how Buffalo should attack them and whether Patriots fans actually consider the Bills a true rival.
THE PATRIOTS’ 1-2 START
Joe From Queens: It seems like the sky is falling a little bit for the Patriots right now. I know it’s only three games, but is the panic justified, or is this more of a “relax, it’s September” situation?
Ethan Hurwitz: I don’t think the panic is totally justified because it’s three games against three teams that made the playoffs last year. You can look at it as a tougher schedule than what they had a year ago.
What makes it more concerning is that your franchise quarterback is playing at a drastically different level than he was last year. Drake Maye has all the talent in the world. He’s 24 years old, he can make any throw on the field, but there’s some sort of disconnect right now with the decision-making and how everything is translating onto the field.
It looks like a complete 180 from last year.
They were in the Seattle game. If not for a few costly interceptions, you might walk out of there winning 10-7 or 10-3 in a really low-scoring game. Instead, Maye turns the ball over three times in the fourth quarter and they shoot themselves in the foot.
They beat Pittsburgh in a pretty grimy game, and then against Jacksonville, once again, bad decisions hurt them. We’re in an era where you lose two games after coming off a Super Bowl loss and everything becomes doom and gloom, but I’m not fully panicking.
There’s just more concrete concern than there was before.
WHAT’S GOING ON WITH DRAKE MAYE?
Joe From Queens: Let’s peel back the onion on Drake Maye. Do you think the shoulder is bothering him? Is there some sort of Super Bowl hangover, or have teams just caught up to him a little bit?
Ethan Hurwitz: I think part of it is teams catching up to him. They have a full year of tape now.
Last year was his first year with Mike Vrabel and his first year with Josh McDaniels, and Maye isn’t necessarily the typical Josh McDaniels quarterback that we’ve seen in the past. He’s not Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo, the guys who mostly stand in the pocket and control everything at the line of scrimmage.
Now teams understand more of what they’re going to see when they play him.
I do think the shoulder is something worth monitoring. Maye has said publicly that it isn’t a problem and it isn’t affecting his throwing. He took all the reps in practice. But he did appear on the injury report, and in the playoffs last year, he didn’t look very good before or after that shoulder injury.
There wasn’t much public information about exactly what the injury was or how severe it was, but he simply hasn’t looked the same.
Maybe the shoulder hurt his confidence. Maybe he started thinking, “I don’t trust myself to make the throw I would have made four weeks ago.” Once you get into a rut, it can snowball, and suddenly you don’t trust yourself in general.
MAYE’S SUPPORTING CAST
Joe From Queens: If you’re trying to defend Maye a little bit, you could point to the wide receivers. Stefon Diggs is gone, A.J. Brown is hurt. How much of an excuse is that, and who should Buffalo actually worry about in this Patriots receiving group?
Ethan Hurwitz: I think that’s a completely fair point.
This offense could look 100 percent different if A.J. Brown doesn’t get hurt in the first game. One of the hardest things for a young quarterback is learning the decision-making part of the position. When do I attack? When do I take the safe throw? When do I extend a play? That cerebral part is usually the final thing to come.
You saw that with Josh Allen. He had all the traits, but things really clicked in Year 3 once Stefon Diggs arrived.
The hope for Maye was that A.J. Brown could have that same kind of effect. But at the same time, New England moved on from two receivers Maye really trusted last year in Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte.
Now Brown is out, and Maye is throwing to a bunch of receivers who are fine and can play well in spurts, but they aren’t necessarily guys who are going to put up 150 yards and completely take over a game.
Mack Hollins has probably been the most productive receiver so far and seems to have the strongest rapport with Maye right now. Romeo Doubs has that kind of ability too, but we haven’t seen it consistently yet.
I really think this offense needs to get the running game going. TreVeyon Henderson had a really good game against Buffalo in the second matchup last year, but they haven’t given him the ball that much, partly because he was working back from an ankle injury. They’re averaging around three yards per carry.
If the Patriots can establish the run and open up the rest of the playbook, I think the offense can settle down. That’s probably the biggest way they can make this game competitive.
I don’t see this receiver room going out there and torching Buffalo for 400 yards. I just don’t see that kind of game happening.
NEW ENGLAND’S DEFENSIVE IDENTITY
Joe From Queens: Defensively, the Patriots seem pretty aggressive. They blitz a lot. What’s the overall philosophy of this defense, and do you think it’s better than last year’s unit?
Ethan Hurwitz: Going back to late July, almost every defensive player who spoke to the media was saying they wanted to be the No. 1 scoring defense.
Every defense says something like that, obviously, but this group was very specific about what it wanted to do. Get to the quarterback, force turnovers, dominate in the red zone and make offenses uncomfortable.
What made that interesting was that the edge room didn’t necessarily look dominant on paper.
Harold Landry has been banged up since last year. Gabe Akas, their second-round rookie, wasn’t even on the field early. Now he’s playing more. Elijah Ponder was an undrafted free agent. Draymond Jones is more of a run defender than a pure pass rusher.
But they’ve gotten really good snaps from some guys you might not have expected to create that kind of pressure.
They also have good linebackers. Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are really sound in the middle. They can tackle, they’re rangy and they help tie everything together.
Then you get to a secondary that I think is one of the better groups in the league.
When all those layers come together, it gives them the ability to be aggressive.
They blitzed a lot last year too, but they’ve leaned into it even more. Zach Orr is in his first year as defensive coordinator, and I think there’s something to being a young defensive coach and wanting to attack. Blitzing is the fun part. You want to go after people.
And with Mike Vrabel being a former pass rusher, I think that mentality starts at the top. They believe in winning in the trenches, stopping the run and getting after the quarterback.
They don’t want to sit back and wait for the offense. They want to dictate what happens.
THE FORMER BILLS IN NEW ENGLAND
Joe From Queens: There are a few former Bills on the Patriots now. Mack Hollins, Reggie Gilliam, DaQuan Jones, Greg Van Roten. How have those guys looked?
Ethan Hurwitz: Van Roten was their top right guard after Mike Onwenu got hurt, and then Van Roten got hurt a week later. He’s on injured reserve, so he won’t be out there.
Mack Hollins has been pretty productive. Going into the year, you probably expected him to be the third receiver, and through the first few games, he’s basically been their best receiver.
He has a rapport with Drake Maye and has become somebody Maye trusts.
Reggie Gilliam hasn’t been used as much offensively as I thought he might be. He has been important on special teams, but I think he only played around eight offensive snaps against Jacksonville. If the running game starts becoming more of a focus, I think his role could increase.
DaQuan Jones has been more of a rotational player. They aren’t counting on him for 40 or 50 snaps a game or expecting him to pile up sacks. He’s there more to help against the run and give them solid snaps inside.
None of the former Bills have really become the centerpiece of the team, but Hollins is probably the one they need the most right now if they want to start winning games.
HOW BUFFALO SHOULD ATTACK NEW ENGLAND
Joe From Queens: If you’re Buffalo, how do you attack the Patriots offense and defense?
Ethan Hurwitz: Against the Patriots offense, it almost feels like you have to let them stop themselves.
They’ve moved the ball during the first three weeks, but once they get into that 30-yard line or red-zone area, they start making mistakes.
Obviously Buffalo can’t just sit back and assume New England will implode, but I think you put the game on Drake Maye and make him prove he can beat you.
Based on what we’ve seen through three games, he hasn’t looked like the same quarterback he was a year ago.
Maybe he throws for 400 yards and proves everyone wrong, but right now he has been making some shaky decisions in the passing game. Buffalo has a defense that can take advantage of that.
You’ll see New England have a drive where they move the ball 40 or 50 yards, then they take a penalty, Maye throws into double coverage and suddenly the drive is over.
They’ve only scored two offensive touchdowns through three games, and only one has been a Maye passing touchdown.
So I think Buffalo’s defensive approach is basically: Make Drake Maye win the game.
On the other side, New England has struggled stopping the run and gave up five red-zone touchdowns against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is a good offense. Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback. But Josh Allen is an entirely different challenge.
Once Buffalo gets inside the 20, it feels like that could become almost automatic points if New England doesn’t improve.
The Bills also have so many ways to win. James Cook can hurt you. The tight ends can hurt you. If DJ Moore is healthy, that gives Buffalo another option outside.
New England’s secondary is banged up too. Christian Gonzalez didn’t practice, and Craig Woodson missed last week. That could create opportunities for Buffalo’s tight ends.
This Patriots defense has been good, and it can pressure the quarterback, but I don’t think we’ve seen it completely overwhelm a full-strength elite offense yet.
They lost to Drew Lock, beat an older Aaron Rodgers and lost to Trevor Lawrence. Josh Allen is a completely different level of quarterback.
IS BILLS-PATRIOTS REALLY A RIVALRY?
Joe From Queens: I’ve been watching Bills-Patriots since the early ’90s. Buffalo dominated when New England was terrible, then Belichick and Brady arrived and it flipped completely. How do Patriots fans actually view Buffalo now? Is this really a rivalry to them?
Ethan Hurwitz: For most of the 21st century, I think Patriots fans viewed Buffalo as almost an automatic win.
It was basically, “We’ll win, Buffalo will lose, and that’s just what happens.”
Even when Buffalo started consistently winning the division around 2021 or 2022, I never really sensed this deep anger from Patriots fans toward the Bills.
I think Patriots fans were probably more focused on the Chiefs because of what Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City represented in relation to Tom Brady’s records and legacy.
With Buffalo, I don’t sense that same kind of hatred.
People respect Josh Allen. He’s a likable quarterback nationally, and people here recognize that he’s a great player.
It’s more, “If you want to win the AFC East, you have to beat Buffalo.”
There isn’t this overwhelming “We hate the Bills, we hate Josh Allen, we hate everybody in Buffalo” feeling.
If anything, the true rivalry period might have been the early 2000s, when Drew Bledsoe went to Buffalo, Lawyer Milloy left New England, and you had that 31-0 game.
But even then, I think Patriots fans have always hated the Jets more.
A lot of that comes from the Boston-New York dynamic. You have the Mo Lewis hit on Bledsoe, Bill Parcells leaving, and all that history between the Patriots and Jets.
During the Brady years, Patriots fans also considered teams like Indianapolis, Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore to be bigger rivals because those were the teams New England kept seeing in important playoff games.
For a long time, Buffalo simply wasn’t enough of a threat for Patriots fans to think of it that way.
Obviously that has changed because Buffalo is now the better team, but I still don’t think there’s this deep-rooted hatred toward the Bills from New England fans.
Joe From Queens: That’s funny because in Buffalo, the hatred never went away. Tom Brady can be calling a game and people are still furious. Rob Gronkowski shows up and people still don’t want to see him.
Ethan Hurwitz: Yeah, I definitely don’t think it’s equal.
Buffalo fans seem to hate the Patriots much more than Patriots fans hate Buffalo.
Maybe that changes if something happens that creates a real emotional flashpoint. A big injury, trash talk, a playoff controversy, something like that.
But right now, I don’t think there’s really that one moment that has created the same kind of resentment on the New England side.
WHY SUNDAY MATTERS SO MUCH FOR NEW ENGLAND
Joe From Queens: Is there anything else about Sunday’s game that you think people should know?
Ethan Hurwitz: I think this game is incredibly important for New England.
Last year, the Patriots’ season really turned around with the win in Buffalo. This year, this feels like another potential turning point.
They don’t want to fall to 1-3 while Buffalo goes to 4-0, especially when Buffalo already has a game on them in the standings.
If you had asked me three weeks ago to predict the schedule, I probably would have chalked Buffalo up as a loss and said, “That’s fine. You try to split with them and move on.”
But now, with the way the first three weeks have gone and with some tough games later in the schedule, I don’t know if they can afford to fall into a 1-3 hole.
At this point, it really does feel like a must-win game for the Patriots.
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