The Buffalo Bills open the 2026 season Sunday in Houston, and I’m not sure there
is another Week 1 opponent that can make Bills fans look at the previous two meetings and say, “Yeah, I’d rather not do that again.”
Houston has beaten Buffalo in each of the last two seasons. The scores weren’t blowouts as it was 23-20 in 2024 and 23-19 in 2025, but how the Texans got there should probably have Joe Brady’s full attention, especially since he was the OC for both games.
One year Houston beat Buffalo because C.J. Stroud threw for more than 300 yards.
The next year Stroud didn’t even play…Houston still won.
And more importantly, the Texans did something to Josh Allen that nobody else has done in his NFL career.
They sacked him eight times!!
THE 2024 GAME: MAYBE JOSH ALLEN’S WORST GAME EVER
Buffalo went into Houston on October 6, 2024 and lost 23-20 on a 59-yard Ka’imi Fairbairn field goal as time expired. The lasting memory for me isn’t even the field goal.
It’s Josh Allen going 9-for-30 and Andy losing his mind at 15 months at the end of the game because he had a blowout.
Nine completions on thirty attempts and poop. Yuck!
That is a 30 percent completion percentage from a quarterback who would go on to win MVP that season.
Allen finished with only 131 passing yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 56.4 passer rating.
Buffalo actually ran the ball pretty well. James Cook had 20 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown, while Allen added 54 rushing yards. The Bills finished with 150 yards on the ground and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
Yet…the passing game was basically nonexistent.
Keon Coleman caught only one pass, although it went for a 49-yard touchdown. Cook caught two passes. Buffalo couldn’t consistently create anything through the air.
Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud looked like the much more comfortable quarterback.
Stroud completed 28 of 38 passes for 331 yards, one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a 97.6 passer rating. He also ran for 27 yards and was sacked only once.
And remember who was playing receiver for Houston that afternoon…Stefon Diggs caught six passes for 82 yards against his former team. Nico Collins caught two balls for 78 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown.
Houston didn’t even run particularly well. The Texans had only 94 rushing yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry.
They won because Stroud was able to generate explosive passing plays while Buffalo couldn’t.
THE 2025 GAME: THE NIGHT JOSH GOT DESTROYED
I’ll remember this game for reasons that have nothing to do with the final score.
I watched it at Murphy’s, a Bills bar in Queens, with a couple of friends. I hadn’t gone out to a Bills bar in Queens to watch a game since Andy was born, so I was actually looking forward to doing something I used to do all the time.
I picked possibly the worst Bills game imaginable to make my return.
Watching Josh Allen get sacked eight times at home would have been bad enough, but watching it in a crowded Bills bar was torture. It felt like every 10 seconds the entire place was yelling the same thing:
“Allen is sacked!”
Sack. Groan. Drink.
Sack. Groan. Drink.
Repeat until everyone wondered why we had left our houses, and, craziest part is Buffalo still had a chance to win the damn game. Houston beat Buffalo 23-19, and they did it without C.J. Stroud.
Davis Mills started for Houston and completed 16 of 30 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Houston’s offense produced only 261 total yards. James Cook certainly did his part as he ran 17 times for 116 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard touchdown run.
Buffalo finished with 143 rushing yards and in both meetings they’ve rushed for 293 yards.
But none of that mattered because Josh spent what felt like half the night underneath a Houston Texan.
Allen completed 24 of 34 passes for 253 yards, but he didn’t throw a touchdown, threw two interceptions and finished with a 67.4 passer rating.
And those eight sacks weren’t just something that felt ridiculous while sitting at Murphy’s.
They were ridiculous.
It was the most sacks Allen had taken in a regular-season game in his NFL career as his previous high was seven.
Even crazier, Houston wasn’t sending six or seven guys after him every play.
The Texans blitzed Allen on only 15.2 percent of his dropbacks but generated pressure on 43.5 percent of them.
Seven of their eight sacks came without blitzing as Houston was getting home with four.
That meant they could keep seven defenders in coverage, clog Allen’s throwing windows and still have Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and company collapsing the pocket.
That’s about the worst defensive formula you can create for an offense.
Houston finished 2025 with the NFL’s lowest blitz rate at 16.7 percent, yet still ranked seventh in pressure rate at 40.3 percent.
They don’t need to manufacture pressure as they create it naturally.
HOW ABNORMAL WAS THAT FOR ALLEN?
Here’s the perspective that matters.
Combined, Allen has completed 33 of 64 passes for 384 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in those two games against Houston.
That works out to a passer rating of roughly 62.2 and is almost 32 points below his career passer rating. And last year’s eight-sack performance wasn’t representative of Allen’s typical punishment either.
Houston accounted for 20 percent of his entire regular-season sack total in one night.
This matchup has become Allen’s personal Bermuda Triangle
There’s something about Houston that has always been cursed for Josh Allen. I remember his rookie year when it felt like J.J. Watt and that Texans defense were going to kill him. Allen hurt his elbow, missed the next month, and Nathan Peterman came in and eventually did Nathan Peterman things by throwing the pick-six that basically ended the game. We ended up getting Derek Anderson and Matt Barkley cameos for that season and when Allen came back, he was better and you can insert the narrative of watching and learning.
Then there’s the 2019 playoff game, which I still don’t particularly enjoy discussing. The Bills loved kicking field goals, Allen tried to chuck a bomb to fullback Patrick DiMarco, and then we got the infamous Cody Ford penalty in overtime.
The other two losses probably get more attention now because they happened after Allen had become a certified G. He wasn’t the raw rookie anymore and wasn’t the young quarterback playing in his first playoff game. He was Josh freaking Allen….and Houston still got him.
Houston (4 games), Green Bay (1) and Philadelphia (1) are the only teams Josh Allen has never beaten on the road. At this point, forget the ghosts of Arrowhead because Houston might be Allen’s weirdest house of horrors.
FIVE QUESTIONS WITH FOX 26 HOUSTON’S NATE GRIFFIN
For a view behind enemy lines, I reached out to Nate Griffin, sports reporter and morning sports anchor for FOX 26 (KRIV) in Houston. Griffin has spent decades covering sports in Houston across television and radio, so who better to give us a quick scouting report on what the Bills are walking into?
You can check out Nate’s work at FOX 26 Houston here:
What is the biggest concern surrounding the Texans heading into the Bills game?
The biggest concern is whether the newly designed offensive line can protect C.J. Stroud. Houston addressed that issue through both the draft and free agency, completely revamping the group. The Texans now have 12 offensive linemen, while most teams carry somewhere between eight and 11.
Buffalo has had major problems with Houston’s pass rush in recent meetings. What makes this Texans front so difficult to handle, and how do you expect Houston to attack Josh Allen?
The speed and violent hand techniques of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter make them extremely difficult to handle. They’re two of the fastest edge rushers in the league at getting to the quarterback.
But it’s not just the pass rush. Houston also has three Pro Bowlers in the secondary. The front seven keeps contain and creates pressure while the secondary provides elite coverage behind it.
What does C.J. Stroud need to do against Buffalo’s defense for Houston to win, and where do you think the Texans can exploit the Bills defensively?
Stroud is an extremely talented quarterback, but we really didn’t get to see his full skill set last season because of a struggling offensive line, mediocre running game and injuries to key receivers. Houston has addressed all three areas. Stroud doesn’t need to try to be Superman against Buffalo. He just needs to play within his skill set and make the plays he knows he can make.
What’s one Texans player or matchup that Bills fans might be overlooking that could end up deciding the game?
Houston’s entire defense creates matchup problems because offenses have trouble figuring out where the pressure is coming from. One player Bills fans should watch is linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He’s an extremely smart player and could have a major impact on the game.
Besides Nico Collins, who is the player on the Texans offense that the Bills should be most worried about, and why?
If Jayden Higgins hadn’t suffered a season-ending knee injury, he would have been my pick to click.
Instead, keep an eye on running back Woody Marks. It might seem like a strange choice, but he’s someone Buffalo can’t afford to ignore. Marks has been a good pass catcher going back to college, and he looked even better this summer leading into training camp.
THIS IS STARTING TO FEEL FAMILIAR
I’m Mr. Nostalgia when it comes to the Bills. Go ask Pandering Pat how ridiculous my recall is when it comes to Bills history going back to the late ’80s. And while I was thinking about these last two Houston games, something finally clicked.
The Texans/Bills matchup is starting to remind me of those mid ’90s Steelers/Bills games.
If you were around for those games, you know exactly what I mean.
There was a stretch when Buffalo would play Pittsburgh and every game seemed to follow the same script. They were always on Monday Night Football and I stayed up past my bedtime which I definitely regretted. It seemed and Pittsburgh would come after Jim Kelly, the pocket would collapse, Kelly would get beaten to hell, and the Bills offense suddenly looked nothing like the offense we were accustomed to watching.
The numbers are even uglier than I remembered.
In November 1993, Pittsburgh shut Buffalo out 23-0.
Kelly went 7-of-19 for 93 yards, didn’t throw a touchdown and finished with a 53.2 passer rating.
Buffalo managed only 187 total yards.
A year later, Buffalo went back to Three Rivers Stadium and lost again.
Kelly attempted 43 passes, threw for only 212 yards, was intercepted twice and was sacked six times for 54 yards with a passer rating of 53.6.
Then came the divisional playoff following the 1995 season.
Pittsburgh beat Buffalo 40-21.
Kelly went 14-of-29 for 135 yards, threw one touchdown and three interceptions, was sacked twice and finished with a 33.6 passer rating and was knocked out of the game for a series.
And somehow it got worse when Buffalo returned to Pittsburgh during the 1996 regular season.
Kelly went 15-of-31 for 116 yards with FOUR interceptions and a passing rating of 18.4.
Eighteen point four!
That’s what this Houston/Buffalo matchup is beginning to remind me of. I’m not saying the Texans are those Steelers. I’m saying there is a certain opponent that, for whatever reason, seems to have the blueprint for making your franchise quarterback look completely uncomfortable.
For Jim Kelly, Pittsburgh became that team.
Now I’m starting to wonder if Houston is becoming that team for Josh Allen.
Look at Allen’s passer ratings in the last two meetings:
2024: 56.4
2025: 67.4
Combined: 62.2.
And just like those Pittsburgh games, it’s not simply that Buffalo lost….It’s how the quarterback looked while losing. Including the playoffs, Kelly went 0-4 in Pittsburgh which is the same road record Allen has against the Texans.
Different quarterbacks.
Different eras.
Different defensive schemes.
But watching it produces the exact same feeling I remember having 30 years ago:
Why the hell can’t the Bills block these guys?
That’s why Sunday’s game interests me beyond starting the season 1-0, because I want to know whether Houston really has something on Buffalo.
Because I’ve seen this movie before as back then it was Pittsburgh and Jim Kelly. Right now, it sure as hell feels like Houston and Josh Allen.
HALF A DEFENSE LATER
If you’re looking for another reason this game should feel different from last year, just look at the defense. Half of the 12 guys in the Bills defensive package are different from the group Houston saw last November.
And it’s not like that defense exactly made life miserable for the Texans as Buffalo finished the game without a sack or a takeaway. Cole Bishop, Jordan Poyer and Greg Rousseau led the Bills with six tackles each, while DaQuan Jones and Joey Bosa had two QB hits apiece.
Now you’re adding guys like Bradley Chubb Dee Alford, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the mix.
WHAT SHOULD THE BILLS DO ON DEFENSE?
If Houston’s defensive game plan is pretty simple — rush four and make Josh Allen’s life miserable — Buffalo’s defensive approach should almost be the opposite.
Go after C.J. Stroud.
Stroud finished 2025 with a respectable 92.9 passer rating, but that number doesn’t tell the entire story.
When Stroud was protected, he could still carve you up. At one point last season, PFF had him with a 107.1 passer rating from a clean pocket compared with only 50.4 when pressured. Later in the year, his passer rating under pressure stood at just 67.2.
And here’s the statistic that should really get Leonhard’s attention:
Stroud ranked 27th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback against the blitz last season.
So blitz him.
Seattle got him for three sacks and held him to a 59.0 passer rating.
Jacksonville got two sacks, intercepted him twice and held him to a 66.1 rating.
The Rams sacked him three times, intercepted him and held him to a 74.3 rating.
And then New England completely wrecked him in the playoffs: 20-of-47, 212 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions and a 28.0 passer rating.
SO WHAT SHOULD BUFFALO DO ON OFFENSE
This cannot become another game where Buffalo watches James Cook run successfully for a quarter or two and then decides Josh Allen needs to save everybody. Buffalo averaged more than four yards per Cook carry in both games.
Houston’s defense wants Buffalo to become impatient.
They want Allen holding the football and looking for something downfield while Anderson and Hunter get another second to reach him.
The easiest way to help your offensive line is to make Houston defend Cook.
Run the football.
Throw quickly to Shakir.
Get Kincaid involved underneath.
Misdirection on runs and beat Houston’s over pursuing defensive line.
Use D.J. Moore on slants, crossers and routes where Allen doesn’t need four seconds for something to develop.
Furthermore the Bills have majority of their skilled guys back in comparison to last seasons game. Oh and DJ Moore.
Make Houston’s pass rush hesitate, because the Texans showed Buffalo the formula last November.
They barely blitzed.
They rushed four.
They dropped everybody else.
And they hit Josh Allen over and over and over again.
Buffalo has a different head coach, different offensive pieces and a dramatically different defense in 2026.
But before I believe this matchup has changed, I want to see Buffalo solve the one thing it couldn’t solve last November.
Keep No. 17 upright.
Because through the last two meetings, Houston hasn’t merely beaten Josh Alle…It has turned one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks into a guy with a 62.2 passer rating. That’s the number I’m watching Sunday.
And if Houston starts getting to him every 10 seconds again, at least this time I won’t be surprised.
PREDICTION
