So the Bills are 6–1, and somehow, so are the Minnesota Vikings. How the hell did that happen? I mean, look at these two teams. Buffalo is averaging 33.3 points per game, the most in the NFL, while Minnesota is averaging just 20. Yet both teams have identical records, and they’ve gotten there in completely different ways and one side of the ball for each team is getting a lot of complaints.
Buffalo has Josh Allen running one of the most productive offenses in football, while Minnesota has a defense that has apparently decided opposing quarterbacks shouldn’t be allowed to enjoy playing football. And the man responsible for this insanity is Brian Flores, who Bills fans should remember very well from his three seasons coaching Miami.
Remember him? Of course you do. He’s the guy whose defenses Allen routinely tormented from 2019 through 2021. Well, Flores is back, and apparently he’s spent the last few years figuring out how to blitz even more than he did with the Dolphins. And when I say more, I mean a LOT fucking more. We’ll get into those ridiculous numbers later because I decided to dedicate an entire Stathead of the Week to this lunatic.
Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a 36–10 ass-kicking of Baltimore. The defense was terrific, the running game continued to produce, and Josh Allen did Josh Allen things. Does that mean I’m suddenly feeling great about everything? Of course not. I’ve watched this team for too damn long to get carried away after one game against some QB named after an Italian Sub.
Monday night should be fascinating because Minnesota has the type of defense that can make even the best offenses look ordinary. But the Vikings also have an offense that isn’t exactly reminding anyone of the 1998 team with Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Randall Cunningham. This should be an interesting matchup between two teams that couldn’t be much more different statistically.
Let’s get into it.
Five Things to Know About the Minnesota Vikings
1. Their defense is carrying this team
Minnesota has scored 140 points through seven games, while Buffalo has scored 233. That’s a 93-point difference, yet somehow both teams have won six games. The reason is simple:
The Vikings have allowed only 93 points all season. That’s 13.3 per game, the best mark in football, and they’re surrendering just 271.6 yards per game.
I don’t care who you’ve played. Allowing fewer than two touchdowns per game through seven weeks is pretty damn impressive.
Minnesota has also recorded 25 sacks and eight interceptions, and the Vikings have a plus-seven turnover differential.
They’re forcing mistakes, getting off the field and making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable. It also helps when you have a defensive coordinator who apparently wants to send half the roster after the quarterback.
And here’s what I find particularly interesting. The Vikings aren’t exactly being carried by an offense that’s putting up 30 or 35 points every week. They’re winning games because their defense is doing a ridiculous amount of the work. It reminds me of some of those old Bills teams that relied heavily on defense, except Minnesota is actually winning consistently.
2. Brian Flores has lost his damn mind
We’ll get into Flores’ blitz numbers in Stathead of the Week, but I can’t remember seeing a defense operate this aggressively. Minnesota has 25 sacks through seven games, compared with Buffalo’s 15. And it isn’t just about getting sacks. They’re creating pressure, forcing quarterbacks into mistakes and making offensive coordinators figure out how to block people who might not even be rushing.
What Flores does so well is make quarterbacks question everything they’re seeing. He’ll put six or seven guys near the line of scrimmage, make it look like everyone is coming, and then have a couple of them drop into coverage. Other times, he’ll just send everybody and hope his guys get to the quarterback before somebody gets open. And considering the Vikings are allowing only 154.9 passing yards per game, it’s clearly been working.
But there’s one thing that interests me about this defense. Detroit ran for 230 yards against Minnesota in Week 8, and the Lions showed that there are opportunities if you can handle the pressure and establish the running game. That should be music to James Cook’s ears. And hopefully Joe Brady’s, because if there’s one thing I don’t want to see, it’s the Bills abandoning the run because Flores has them confused.
3. Carson Wentz Is 2–0 Against Josh Allen. Seriously.
With Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring injury, it looks like Carson Wentz is getting another opportunity to start for Minnesota.
And here’s a statistic that I find absolutely fascinating: Wentz is 2–0 against Josh Allen. Yes, Carson Wentz.
In 2019, he led Philadelphia to a 31–13 victory in Buffalo, throwing for 172 yards and a touchdown. Two years later, he was Indianapolis’ quarterback when the Colts absolutely destroyed the Bills 41–15. Wentz threw for just 106 yards and a touchdown that afternoon, although Jonathan Taylor was the real story, scoring five touchdowns.
So in two meetings against Allen, Wentz has thrown for a grand total of 278 yards and two touchdowns, yet his teams have outscored Buffalo 72–28. That’s fucking ridiculous. And here’s another interesting nugget: Tom Brady went 4–0 against Allen, making him one quarterback I could confirm with more than two victories and no losses against him. Wentz would have a chance to join Brady with at least three wins if he starts Monday and Minnesota wins.
He’s certainly not the player who was an MVP candidate in Philadelphia back in 2017, but he’s an experienced quarterback who has shown he can step in and keep the offense functioning in the short-term.
Minnesota is averaging just 165.6 passing yards per game and 279.4 total yards. That’s a pretty remarkable combination for a team with a 6–1 record, especially when you consider some of the offensive talent on this roster. One other statistic that jumped out at me is Minnesota’s 9.81% offensive sack rate. That’s a really bad number for a team that’s already struggling to move the football.
Wentz does have a sack problem. He was sacked 19 times in five starts, and this year he’s already gone down six times on just 45 passing plays. That’s 25 sacks in seven appearances with the Vikings, a ridiculous 10.7% sack rate.
For comparison, his career sack rate is 7.0%. Some of that falls on the offensive line, but Wentz has a history of holding onto the football too long and trying to extend plays. In 2020 he was sacked 50 times in just 12 starts which was the most in the league.
If there’s one area where Buffalo’s defensive line should be able to take advantage of this matchup, it’s getting pressure on Wentz and forcing him into negative plays.
Of course, I’ve watched enough Bills football to know that struggling quarterbacks sometimes have a funny way of suddenly looking like Pro Bowlers against Buffalo. Hopefully that doesn’t happen Monday night.
4. Justin Jefferson is still Justin Jefferson
Here’s another strange thing about Minnesota’s season.
Justin Jefferson has 28 receptions for 335 yards and four touchdowns, an average of just 47.9 yards per game. We’re talking about one of the best receivers in football, and he’s averaging fewer than 50 receiving yards a game.
I don’t think anybody expected that entering the season.
But I wouldn’t confuse a lack of production with a lack of ability. Jefferson is still capable of taking over a football game, and considering Buffalo has allowed 1,783 passing yards, I’m not exactly comfortable with this matchup. Christian Benford is going to have his hands full, particularly if Minnesota starts moving Jefferson around to find favorable matchups.
The Vikings also have T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, so it’s not as though Minnesota has no offensive talent. The passing game simply hasn’t been particularly productive despite having some pretty good players. And that’s part of what makes the Vikings so strange this year. You look at the roster and figure they should be scoring more points, but then you look at the standings and realize they’re 6–1 anyway.
5. Minnesota is coming off its first loss
The Vikings started 6–0 before losing 19–15 to Detroit, and the interesting part wasn’t necessarily that they lost. It’s how the Lions attacked them. Detroit ran for 230 yards and found ways to handle Flores’ pressure, particularly in the second half. That’s an awfully encouraging number if you’re Buffalo, which has one of the better rushing attacks in football.
Meanwhile, Minnesota managed just 15 points despite its defense doing enough to keep the game close. It was another example of Minnesota asking its defense to do almost everything, which is fine when that defense is playing historically well, but eventually you’re going to need your offense to win a game.
The question for Buffalo is whether it can take advantage of the weaknesses Detroit exposed. Because I really don’t want to watch Allen drop back 40 or 45 times against a defense that blitzes almost every play when James Cook is standing right there.
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