The Bills are 4-1 after Monday night’s ridiculous 37-34 overtime win against the Rams, and now they’re staying out west to play the Las Vegas Raiders. I don’t know what to make of the Bills right now. They’re winning games, Josh Allen is doing his thing, and yet I still feel like I’m watching a team that could give up a 90-yard touchdown drive to anybody at any moment.
The Raiders are another team I can’t figure out. They started 3-0, lost to Kansas City, and then got absolutely smoked by New England, 45-17. They’re 3-2, have scored 132 points and allowed 129, and are somehow sitting there with a point differential of just +3. That’s not exactly a team that’s blowing people away.
What makes this matchup interesting is that the Raiders do some things differently on offense, have a few legitimate weapons, and employ Maxx Crosby, who is capable of ruining a Sunday all by himself. But there are plenty of reasons why the Bills should be able to take advantage of this team.
Here are six things about the Raiders, five stats worth watching, and five random Bills-Raiders games that have been stuck in my head for years.
Six Things to Know About the Raiders
1. Kirk Cousins can still play, but can somebody please get in his face?
I know Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly somebody who gets Bills fans excited, but he’s had a pretty productive start to the season.
The Raiders have thrown for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns through five games, with four interceptions and a 100.2 passer rating. They’re also averaging 8.1 intended air yards per pass attempt.
So, this isn’t an offense that’s exclusively throwing three-yard passes and hoping somebody breaks a tackle.
The problem is keeping Cousins upright.
Raiders quarterbacks have faced pressure on 26% of their dropbacks, with 50 total pressures recorded against them. They’ve also been sacked eight times and hit another 27 times.
Cousins can still make throws when he has a clean pocket, but nobody wants to see him trying to escape pressure like he’s Josh Allen.
This is where I want to see Greg Rousseau and the rest of Buffalo’s defensive line actually make some noise. The Bills have been inconsistent rushing the quarterback, and they’ve spent too much time allowing offenses to get comfortable. Cousins isn’t going to beat you running around, but if you let him stand back there and throw to Brock Bowers all afternoon, he can absolutely beat you.
2. Brock Bowers is going to be a pain in the ass.
I love watching Brock Bowers play football. I just don’t particularly enjoy the idea of him playing against the Bills. He’s one of those tight ends who can line up practically anywhere, and the Raiders have built an offense that gets him involved in all kinds of ways. They also have Michael Mayer, which gives them the ability to put two legitimate receiving tight ends on the field together.
Here’s the interesting part.
The Raiders are using 12 personnel, on 41% of their offensive plays. Overall, they’re using formations with at least two tight ends on 62% of their snaps.
That’s the highest rate in the NFL, and it’s a pretty significant departure from the three-receiver sets that have become so common.
They also use pre-snap motion on 58.6% of their plays, so the Bills are going to see plenty of movement before the ball is snapped. I’m interested in how Jim Leonhard approaches this because Buffalo has already had issues with communication and getting everybody lined up correctly. If Bowers is constantly moving around, who’s covering him? A linebacker? A safety? Somebody who realizes he’s supposed to cover him after Cousins has already thrown the football?
3. Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders’ running game have been pretty lousy.
I was really interested to see what Ashton Jeanty would look like in Klint Kubiak’s offense. Kubiak comes from a coaching family that’s practically synonymous with running the football, and Jeanty was supposed to be a big part of getting that system going in Las Vegas. So far, it hasn’t exactly worked.
The Raiders have rushed for 410 yards on 137 carries, which comes out to an NFL-worst 3.0 yards per attempt.
They’ve also scored just two rushing touchdowns through five games.
Jeanty himself has 291 rushing yards on 88 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt, and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown.
That’s a pretty miserable start for a running back with his expectations.
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4. Maxx Crosby is still Maxx Crosby, even if the defense around him stinks.
There are certain defensive players you worry about before every game, and Maxx Crosby is one of them. I don’t care what the Raiders’ record is or how many points they gave up the previous week. Crosby is the type of player who can wreck an entire possession without recording a sack, and he doesn’t seem to have an off switch.
The Raiders have recorded 13 sacks, 25 quarterback hurries and 62 pressures through five games.
They also have 43 recorded defensive blitzes, and another charting source puts their blitz rate at approximately 25%.
They’re capable of getting after the quarterback, but the problem is what happens when the ball actually gets thrown.
Las Vegas is allowing 6.12 yards per defensive play, and opposing quarterbacks have thrown 11 touchdown passes against them.
They’re also allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt, which is among the worst marks in football.
So somehow you have a defense that can generate pressure but also gets gashed on the ground and gives up touchdowns through the air. That seems like the kind of defense Josh Allen and James Cook should be able to have some fun against.
5. If Dalton Kincaid and James Cook don’t get the football, I’m going to have questions.
Here’s a matchup I would imagine Joe Brady has been looking at all week.
Through five games, opposing tight ends have caught 32 passes for 285 yards and six touchdowns against the Raiders. That’s an 82.1% catch rate, and the six touchdowns are tied for the third most allowed to the position in football.
Running backs haven’t had nearly the same touchdown success, but they’ve caught 19 of 21 targets for 145 yards.
Combine those two positions, and opposing tight ends and running backs have caught 51 of 60 passes, or 85% of their targets.
That’s a pretty good indication that the middle and underneath portions of this defense can be attacked.
The Bills have Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and James Cook, so there’s absolutely no reason they shouldn’t be looking to exploit this. I’ve complained plenty about Buffalo’s obsession with receiver screens, and I’m sure I’ll complain about it again Sunday. But this is an opportunity to get Kincaid working down the seams, involve Knox and use Cook as something more than somebody who takes handoffs. The Raiders have shown they struggle covering these positions. Please don’t make this more difficult than it needs to be.
6. Klint Kubiak has an interesting offense, but is it actually any good?
The Raiders are one of the more unusual offensive teams in football when you look at their personnel groupings.
They use three wide receivers on only about 20% of their plays, while using two tight ends on 41% and two running backs on another sizable portion. They’re also under center approximately 44% of the time, which is considerably different from some of the shotgun-heavy offenses around the league.
They’re not constantly putting four receivers on the field and asking Cousins to throw the football 45 times. The problem is that the production hasn’t exactly matched the creativity, particularly with the running game being as bad as it has been.
The Raiders are averaging 5.16 yards per offensive play, have turned the ball over seven times and are converting 39.4% of their third downs. They’re also just four of eight on fourth down.
That’s not a terrible offense, but it’s not exactly the Greatest Show on Turf, either. Buffalo needs to make them earn everything instead of handing them easy yards because somebody missed a tackle or forgot who they were supposed to cover.
Stathead of the Week: Five Numbers That Caught My Attention
1. 62 — The Raiders can actually get after the quarterback.
The Raiders’ defense has generated 62 quarterback pressures through five games, including 13 sacks, 25 hurries and 24 quarterback knockdowns. That’s not bad for a defense that’s been giving up yards and points like candy.
2. 8.1 — The Raiders aren’t afraid to throw downfield.
Las Vegas is averaging 8.1 intended air yards per pass attempt, which means they’re not just living on screens and five-yard passes. They’ve attempted 180 passes, generating 1,466 intended air yards, while their completions have produced 799 yards through the air and another 469 after the catch. Their completed passes are traveling an average of 6.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage before the receiver gets the football. For a team that uses so many tight ends and heavy formations, they’re certainly not afraid to attack downfield.
3. 1.4 — Jeanty isn’t getting much help.
The Raiders are averaging just 1.4 rushing yards before contact per attempt, which tells you plenty about what’s happening up front. They’ve generated only 192 rushing yards before contact on 137 attempts, meaning their running backs are routinely dealing with defenders before they can get going.
4. +3 — At least they’re winning the turnover battle.
One thing the Raiders have done well is create turnovers. Their defense has forced 10 takeaways through five games, while the offense has committed seven turnovers. That’s a +3 turnover differential, and they are still being outgained by more than 200 yards this season.
5. 50% — Fourth down is basically a coin flip.
The Raiders have gone for it eight times on fourth down this season and converted four of them. That’s a 50% success rate, and they’ve actually attempted more fourth-down conversions than all but a handful of teams.
Historical meaningless stat that I find interesting
In eight road games against West Coast teams, including Arizona and the relocated 2020 game against San Francisco, Allen is 6–2 while averaging 289.5 passing yards, 43.4 rushing yards and 3.25 total touchdowns per game. That’s an average of nearly 333 yards of offense by himself. His only two losses came in the infamous 2020 Hail Murray game against Arizona and the 44–42 shootout against the Rams in 2024, when Allen accounted for six touchdowns. Whatever the reason, traveling across the country hasn’t slowed him down.
Memory Lane: Random Bills-Raiders Games I Still Remember
Everybody remembers 51-3. The Bills absolutely destroyed the Raiders in the 1990 AFC Championship Game, and I was 10 years old. It was awesome. The Bills were going to their first Super Bowl, and for somebody growing up in Buffalo, it didn’t get much better than that.
But I don’t really want to write about 51-3. Everybody has written about that game a million times. I’m much more interested in the random games that have somehow stayed in my head for 15, 20 or even 35 years. Some were great. Others still piss me off.
2008: Bills 24, Raiders 23 — Ralph Wilson’s Personal Super Bowl
I have this theory that Ralph Wilson was so happy to beat Al Davis and the Raiders in 2008 that he decided right then and there that Dick Jauron deserved a contract extension. Now, the extension wasn’t actually reported until about a month later, when the Bills were 5-1, but I like to believe Ralph had made up his mind after this one.
Buffalo was 2-0 entering the game, and the Raiders came to Orchard Park with Lane Kiffin as their coach and an organization that was an absolute mess. This was when the rumors of Kiffin battling with Davis and he’d be fired any day now.
Naturally, the Bills spent most of the afternoon making them look pretty good. Oakland led 23-14 in the fourth quarter before Trent Edwards brought Buffalo back, and Rian Lindell kicked a 38-yard field goal as time expired to give the Bills a 24-23 win.
The Bills were 3-0 for the first time since 1992, and everybody was starting to believe that maybe Jauron had finally figured something out.
Of course, the Bills eventually finished 7-9, and that contract extension became another reminder of how stupid the playoff drought could get. But I still think Ralph enjoyed sticking it to Al Davis that afternoon more than he enjoyed most things in his later years.
2014: Raiders 26, Bills 24 — The Stupid Bills Being the Stupid Bills
This is one of those games that still makes me angry. The Bills were 8-6, had one of the best defenses in football, and had just beaten Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the previous week. They were actually playing meaningful football in December, which wasn’t something Bills fans were accustomed to during the drought.
All they had to do was beat the 2-12 Oakland Raiders and keep their playoff hopes alive. Naturally, they lost. I remember watching this game at the (716) Bar that had just opened and the service and food was mid but the TV was bigger than the Death Star Entrance. Made it great for me to curse out a giant screen for once.
The defense that had been terrific most of the year suddenly couldn’t stop Derek Carr, who threw two touchdowns. This was a defense that had handled Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in consecutive weeks, but apparently a two-win Raiders team was too much to ask. Kyle Orton and the offense weren’t particularly good, either, and by the time Buffalo tried making a comeback, it was too late.
2011: Bills 38, Raiders 35 — The Fitz Scream at McFadden’s
This is one of my favorite memories of watching the Bills in New York City. I was at McFadden’s, sitting at one of the middle tables with a bunch of Buffalo expats, and the Raiders were kicking the absolute shit out of the Bills. Oakland led 21-3 at halftime, and the place wasn’t exactly filled with optimism.
Then Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson decided to make things interesting. The Bills started putting up touchdowns, the Raiders kept answering, and suddenly the entire bar was losing its mind. It was one of those games where every possession felt like it could end in a touchdown, and nobody seemed particularly interested in playing defense.
When Fitz hit David Nelson, which I would call this the Davis Nelson game, for the winning touchdown with 14 seconds left, McFadden’s absolutely exploded. I remember the screaming, the people jumping up from their tables, and that feeling of being surrounded by a bunch of Buffalo people living in New York who still cared way too much about this football team.
The Bills were 2-0, Fitzmania was taking off, and I genuinely started believing in that team. Maybe Fitz wasn’t the most talented quarterback in the world, but he was fun, and for a few weeks that season the Bills were fun.
2002: Raiders 49, Bills 31 — Welcome to New York, Kid
This was my first football season living in New York City. I had moved down from Buffalo in June, and I remember going to McCann’s, which is sadly no longer around, to watch the Bills play the Raiders by myself. I didn’t have my regular group of Bills people yet, so I was sitting there watching Drew Bledsoe go against Rich Gannon and that ridiculous Oakland offense.
The Raiders had Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner and a bunch of other guys who would eventually get them to the Super Bowl that season. The Bills had Bledsoe, who was putting up monster numbers, and an offense that could move the ball. What they didn’t have was much of a defense, but that was pretty much the story of the early-2000s Bills.
Buffalo actually led 31-28 heading into the fourth quarter, and I remember thinking they could pull off the upset. Then Gannon hit Garner for a 69-yard touchdown, and the Raiders went ahead 35-31. Bledsoe was driving, trying to get the lead back, when he threw an interception to Phillip Buchanon, who returned it 81 yards for a touchdown.
For years, I remembered that interception return being 93 yards, but it was actually 81. Either way, it felt like about 200 yards while I was sitting there watching the game fall apart.
The Raiders eventually won 49-31, and Buffalo went from leading in the fourth quarter to losing by 18 points. It was a pretty fitting introduction to watching the Bills as a Buffalo expat in New York City.
1993: Raiders 25, Bills 24 — The Day Thurman Thomas Lost His Shit
This was the first time I ever went to a Bills game and watched them lose. I was 13 years old, had a perfect 6-0 record attending games at Rich Stadium, and probably figured the Bills would never lose a game as long as I was sitting in the stands. Well, that came to an end on December 5, 1993, when the Los Angeles Raiders came into Buffalo and pulled off a pretty big upset.
I remember Don Beebe catching a long touchdown pass from Jim Kelly, which turned out to be a 65-yarder in the second quarter. The Bills actually led 24-16 in the fourth quarter after Thurman Thomas scored his second touchdown of the game, but the Raiders came back. Jeff Hostetler found Tim Brown for a 29-yard touchdown, and Buffalo ended up losing 25-24. Just a miserable afternoon.
But here’s what I remember more than anything about that game. I was listening to the postgame coverage on the radio during the ride home, and Thurman Thomas absolutely lost his shit. The Bills had lost three of their previous four games, the media was questioning what was going on, and suddenly everybody was bringing back the old Bickering Bills nonsense. Thurman apparently had enough.
I remember him yelling about the team, the media, and how everybody needed to stop with the Bickering Bills crap. And I distinctly remember him swearing. I was 13 years old, so hearing one of my favorite players going off like that certainly got my attention. Thirty-three years later, I still remember sitting in that car listening to him.
Turns out, I wasn’t imagining it.
Thurman’s postgame outburst, including him insisting there was no controversy and telling reporters they didn’t have to write about the team if they didn’t like it. He even used the word “damn,” which isn’t exactly George Carlin, but I remember that radio rant sounding a hell of a lot more heated.
The funny thing is that Buffalo won its final four regular-season games, then beat these same Raiders in the divisional playoffs before making another Super Bowl. So maybe Thurman blowing up wasn’t such a bad thing after all. As for me, my perfect 6-0 record at Rich Stadium was officially over, and I learned a valuable lesson about being a Bills fan. No matter how good the team is, they’re eventually going to ruin your Sunday.
1991: Bills 30, Raiders 27 (OT) — Scott Norwood’s Personal Nightmare
The Bills went to the Los Angeles Coliseum in December 1991 to play the Raiders, and I still think this was probably the toughest game Buffalo played during that regular season.
Los Angeles jumped out to a 10-0 lead before Al Edwards returned a kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown. I still remember that return and the incredible blocking, particularly a play I remember involving Steve Tasker taking out two Raiders. That’s one of those random moments that has stayed in my head for 35 years.
The Bills eventually fell behind 27-14 before Jim Kelly brought them back. But the real story was Scott Norwood, who missed three field goals and an extra point. This was less than a year after Wide Right, so I can only imagine what was going through everybody’s head every time he lined up to kick the football.
And somehow, after missing all those kicks, Norwood made a 42-yard field goal in overtime to win it 30-27.
Final Thoughts and Predictions
The Raiders are 3-2, but I don’t think they’re particularly good. Their running game stinks, their defense gives up a ton of yards, and their secondary has been vulnerable. But Cousins is still capable of throwing the football, Bowers is a legitimate problem, and Crosby is exactly the kind of defensive player who can turn a relatively easy game into a complete pain in the ass.
The Bills should be able to run the football against this defense, and Kincaid, Knox and Cook should have opportunities in the passing game. Defensively, I’d love to see Buffalo actually get some pressure on Cousins and force the Raiders to win with something other than Bowers running around the middle of the field.
I just don’t want another game where the Bills spend the first half screwing around, let the opponent hang around, and then need Josh Allen to become Superman in the fourth quarter. We’ve already seen enough of that this season.
