For most Bills fans, Patriots memories usually start in one of two places.
Either it’s the 20-year Brady/Belichick torture chamber, where seemingly every Bills–Patriots game ended with Buffalo losing 27-10 while some random Patriots running back caught eight passes, or it’s the Josh Allen era, where the balance of the rivalry finally changed.
But I’m old enough to remember something else.
When the Patriots absolutely sucked.
And before we get to a few of those memories, including Thurman Thomas ripping off 80 yards, Bruce Smith chasing Doug Flutie around and Andre Reed turning Patriots defenders into tackling dummies, here are six things to know about the 2026 Patriots.
1. Drake Maye Hasn’t Looked Like the Same Quarterback
This is probably the biggest thing in the entire game.
Maye was ridiculous for most of 2025. Through his first 10 games last season, he completed 205 of 286 passes, 71.7%, for 2,555 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. That works out to 255.5 passing yards per game, 8.9 yards per attempt and roughly a 113.9 passer rating.
Now compare that with his final four regular-season games plus New England’s four playoff games:
148 of 226, 65.5%, 1,810 yards, 14 TDs, six interceptions, 8.0 yards per attempt and a 99.6 passer rating.
Those numbers aren’t terrible, but the decline is noticeable, and the postseason was especially uneven. He threw for just 86 yards in the AFC Championship Game, was sacked five times, then threw two interceptions and was sacked six times in the Super Bowl loss to Seattle.
And whatever was happening late last season has gotten much worse in 2026.
Through three games Maye is 51-of-80 for 585 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions, with a 58.6 passer rating. He has already thrown almost as many interceptions in three games this season as he did in all 17 regular-season games last year.
That’s the story Buffalo’s defense should be attacking.
2. The Patriots Are Turning the Ball Over at an Insane Rate
New England has committed eight turnovers through three games, second-worst in the league in the Pro Football Reference rankings available entering Week 4, and their drives have ended in turnovers 26.7% of the time.
Maye has six interceptions plus a lost fumble, and New England gave the ball away three more times in Sunday’s 35-6 loss in Jacksonville.
For comparison, Maye threw eight interceptions during the entire 2025 regular season.
For a Bills team that somehow just won despite committing five turnovers against the Chargers, this feels like the obvious theme of the week:
Who stops handing the other team the football?
3. They Move the Ball Better Than the Scoreboard Makes It Look
New England isn’t completely incapable of moving the football. The Patriots have 921 yards through three games, which ranks 21st, and Maye is still averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. But they’ve scored only 36 points, 31st in the league.
The biggest problem has been finishing drives.
Their scoring percentage per drive is just 23.3%, last in the NFL, and they went 0-for-3 in the red zone against Jacksonville.
So this isn’t necessarily an offense Buffalo is going to hold to 150 yards. It might be an offense that drives 60 yards and then kicks itself in the balls.
4. The Offensive Line Is Becoming a Problem
This matters even more considering what Greg Rousseau has been doing.
New England has allowed nine sacks through three games, and injuries have started piling up.
Maye’s average time to throw has been 3.18 seconds, according to PFF, which is part offensive line and part quarterback.
He’s holding the football, trying to create, and lately those extended plays have produced a lot more chaos than magic.
Against Rousseau and Buffalo’s front, there’s an opportunity here.
5. A.J. Brown Isn’t Walking Through That Door
The Patriots’ biggest offensive acquisition is unavailable.
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve with an ankle injury and isn’t expected back until later in the season. That leaves Maye working with a receiving group led recently by Mack Hollins, who had six catches for 87 yards against Jacksonville.
Yes, that Mack Hollins who Pat Moran has a never ending chubby for.
Because apparently Bills–Patriots games are now legally required to contain at least three guys who used to play for the other team.
Hollins, Reggie Gilliam, DaQuan Jones and Greg Van Roten are among the former Bills currently with New England.
6. The Patriots Defense Is Better Than the 35 Points Jacksonville Just Scored
This might be the most important warning in the preview.
New England’s defense has been really good in man coverage.
Through three weeks they’re playing man on 39% of opposing dropbacks, second-highest in the NFL, allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt in man and producing -0.70 EPA per dropback, also second-best.
Their zone defense is basically the opposite: 7.7 yards per attempt allowed and +0.20 EPA per dropback, 28th.
That makes the chess match with Josh Allen interesting.
Because New England wants to play man, let Christian Gonzalez cover somebody by himself, bring pressure and challenge receivers to win.
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Advance Stats: What New England Actually Does
They blitz. A lot.
Through three weeks the Patriots have blitzed on 45.2% of opposing dropbacks, second-highest in the NFL behind Minnesota. Buffalo, by comparison, is at 23.4%. Through the first two weeks New England was sixth at 41.1%, and when they blitzed they generated pressure on 46.7% of those plays.
So don’t expect Josh Allen to sit back and play seven-on-seven.
They’re coming after him.
And this is where Buffalo’s protection becomes interesting after the Chargers game, because the offensive line run-blocked extremely well but had some real problems protecting Allen.
Man coverage is the strength
This is probably New England’s clearest defensive identity.
Man coverage:
39% usage — 2nd
3.5 yards per attempt — 3rd
Zone coverage:
61% usage — 31st
7.7 yards per attempt — 22nd
There’s the matchup.
If Buffalo can force New England out of those aggressive man looks, the defense becomes considerably less impressive.
Third down hasn’t killed them
Opponents are only 12-for-35 on third down, 34.3%. New England’s offense, meanwhile, is 13-for-40, 32.5%.
So these aren’t two offenses living on long, methodical third-down conversions.
Buffalo getting New England behind the sticks should matter enormously because of everything Maye has been doing under pressure.
Their defense is better than their points allowed suggest
New England is fifth in total yards allowed through three games despite giving up 35 to Jacksonville, and they’ve allowed just 4.8 yards per play. Jacksonville’s scoring explosion was helped enormously by New England turnovers and short fields.
Patriots Box score Stathead of the week: 2025 vs 2026
Forgotten Bills–Patriots Memories
This is the part I’d have the most fun with.
Everyone remembers Tom Brady. Everyone remembers the drought. Everyone remembers the wind game. Everyone remembers Josh Allen essentially sending the Patriots’ defense into retirement in the playoff game.
I want the Patriots games people don’t talk about anymore.
1990: Thurman finally ends the world’s ugliest football game
This one I remember because it was one of those games you basically had to experience through radio/highlights unless you happened to get it locally.
Buffalo was 8-1. New England was 1-8.
Naturally, the Patriots somehow turned the greatest Bills offense of that era into the 2023 New York Jets for about 58 minutes.
Jim Kelly finished 5-of-15 for only 79 yards.
Seventy-nine!
Buffalo led 7-0 forever before Thurman Thomas finally broke an 80-yard touchdown run with under two minutes remaining to make it 14-0. Thomas finished with 165 yards on 22 carries and both Bills touchdowns.
That 80-yarder was the longest run of Thurman’s NFL career.
That’s a perfect forgotten Bills game.
The Bills were headed to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots were one of the worst teams in football.
And somehow New England almost dragged them into the mud for an entire afternoon.
1989: Bruce Smith vs. Doug Flutie
This one becomes even funnier this weekend because Flutie is the Bills’ Legend of the Game. And I’ve always had a weird relationship with Flutie being treated strictly as a Bills icon.
He was obviously an important Bill. I loved watching him.
But the guy is Boston. Boston College legend. Played for the Patriots. Went back to New England at the end of his career. He’s as tied to that area as almost anyone who ever wore a Bills uniform.
In the 1989 meeting, Buffalo beat New England 31-10. Flutie went 15-of-41 for 176 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while Kelly went 12-of-17 for 278 yards and three touchdowns. Thurman added 105 rushing yards.
The craziest or coincidental part of this game is there was a story that the Patriots owner wanted Flutie to play instead of Tony Eason. Here’s how TBN had it
And yes, seeing Flutie running around trying to survive that Buffalo defense — especially Bruce Smith — is part of what makes him being honored for a Bills–Patriots game hilarious to me.
1991: Fred Smerlas comes home wearing the wrong uniform
This is an underrated weird Bills history game.
Fred Smerlas had spent 11 seasons in Buffalo, made five Pro Bowls and had been one of the faces of the franchise before eventually landing in New England. He played for the Patriots in 1991 and 1992.
So now he’s back in Orchard Park wearing Patriots colors.
Buffalo won 22-17, but it was much closer than it should’ve been. The Bills turned it over four times, New England ran for 122 yards, and Leonard Russell scored twice.
And the part I remember is Kelly screwing around with Smerlas at the line, getting his former teammate to jump offsides twice on two straight plays. Both players had a good laugh after the game about it.
That’s the kind of moment I want in this section because it feels like something completely lost to time now
It wasn’t Brady vs. Buffalo.
It was Jim Kelly laughing because he got Fred Smerlas to jump.
1993: Andre Reed destroys the Patriots
This one deserves to be rediscovered.
Opening day.
Bill Parcells’ first game as Patriots head coach.
Drew Bledsoe’s NFL debut.
And Parcells was returning to an NFL sideline for the first time since beating Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV.
Buffalo won 38-14.
Jim Kelly only completed 13 passes.
Four were touchdowns.
And Andre Reed caught six passes for 110 yards and three touchdowns. His TDs went for 41, 22 and 14 yards.
Reed had scored only three receiving touchdowns during the entire 1992 regular season.
The 41-yarder is the one.
That’s one of those Andre Reed highlights where he catches the ball and suddenly Patriots defenders start bouncing off him when ESPN decides to do a quick 5 minute interview with him today on media row during the Super Bowl.
Then he started 1993 by scoring three against New England in one afternoon.
That is exactly the kind of Bills–Patriots history I want in this preview.
DID YOU KNOW??
If the Bills beat New England, they will have swept three consecutive home games played in three consecutive weeks for the first time since 1989
Final word and prediction
The Bills have spent most of the last 25 years playing Patriots games carrying baggage from whatever happened before them. This one feels different. New England isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots anymore, but they’re also not the 1-9 Patriots that Thurman Thomas finally put away with an 80-yard run. They’re somewhere in between — talented enough to make Buffalo uncomfortable, mistake-prone enough to hand the game away, and led by a quarterback who suddenly looks nothing like the guy who nearly won MVP last season.
Which probably means Bills–Patriots will be completely normal and stress-free.
So, obviously, Bills 30 and Patriots 27 with everyone miserable for three hours.
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