The Bills are heading to Los Angeles for Monday Night Football, and this is one of those games where I think the opponent is a little harder to figure out than its record.
The Rams are 2-2, Buffalo is 3-1, and both teams are coming off completely different kinds of Week 4 games. Buffalo lost 29-26 to New England, while Los Angeles came back to beat Philadelphia 24-20. The Rams haven’t necessarily looked dominant for four straight weeks, but there are enough things on this roster that concern me, especially with Puka Nacua back and a defense that has been much better than I expected.
So here are four things I’m looking at with the Rams, a few advanced numbers that stood out to me, and then three completely random Bills-Rams games that I still remember.
Four Things to Know About the Rams
1. Puka is back, and that changes everything
This feels like the biggest thing to me.
Puka Nacua missed the previous two games with an injury and then came back against Philadelphia and basically picked up where he left off. He finished with nine catches for 125 yards and also scored a rushing touchdown. When Nacua is on the field, Matthew Stafford has that guy he trusts when everything else around him starts breaking down.
That worries me against this Bills defense because Buffalo has had stretches where the pass rush gets home, but quarterbacks still find answers. Stafford has been doing this forever. If Buffalo shows him exactly what it is doing before the snap and Puka has one-on-one opportunities underneath, Stafford is going to take those throws all night.
The Bills don’t necessarily have to completely erase Nacua because very few teams do. They just can’t let him turn third-and-7 into eight yards over and over again.
2. The Rams defense might actually be the bigger concern
When I think Sean McVay and the Rams, I automatically think offense. That might not be the biggest story with this team right now.
Los Angeles held Jalen Hurts to 93 passing yards Sunday and Philadelphia went an absolutely ridiculous 0-for-12 on third down. The Rams also stopped three of Philadelphia’s four fourth-down attempts, including a fourth-and-goal from the two-yard line.
They were extremely aggressive doing it. Los Angeles blitzed Hurts on 60.6 percent of his dropbacks, its highest blitz rate in a game under Chris Shula, and generated pressure on 13 of those 18 blitzes.
That makes the Josh Allen part of this game fascinating.
Do the Rams try that against Josh? Because blitzing Josh Allen can also become a very dangerous game when he recognizes it, escapes it and suddenly there are fewer defenders behind the rush.
3. Don’t sleep on the Rams running game
Kyren Williams is still really good, but this isn’t just him anymore.
Through four games, Williams has 294 rushing yards on 54 carries, while Blake Corum has added 162 yards on 33 carries. That’s 456 yards from those two backs alone, and Los Angeles is getting consistent yardage before contact from both of them.
This matters because the worst possible situation against McVay and Stafford is constantly giving them second-and-5.
Now the whole offense is available. They can run it again, use play action, move Stafford, attack the middle of the field or take a shot.
Buffalo needs to make this offense play from behind the chains. If the Rams can run it on first down all night, I don’t like that matchup nearly as much.
4. Matthew Stafford is still Matthew Stafford
Stafford is 38 years old now, which sounds completely insane to me because I still think of him as the young quarterback on those terrible Lions teams.
He’s also still willing to throw the football down the field.
Through four games, Stafford has attempted 162 passes, and his average intended air yards is 9.4 yards per attempt. He hasn’t just become a dink-and-dunk veteran quarterback trying to survive.
The interesting part is that Stafford hasn’t faced a ton of pressure so far. Pro Football Reference has him pressured on only 17.4 percent of his dropbacks through its latest advanced-stat update.
That’s where Buffalo has to change the game.
If Stafford can stand there clean, eventually somebody is going to get open. If Buffalo can make him move, especially without having to constantly send six guys, that’s where I think the Bills can force some mistakes.
5. Random box score stats between Bills and Rams
Five Advanced Nerdy Rams Numbers
60.6% — Blitz rate against Philadelphia
This is the craziest number I found.
The Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on 60.6 percent of his dropbacks Sunday. Even more impressive, they generated pressure on 65 percent of those blitzes. A
I don’t know if they are going to try that against Josh Allen because that’s a completely different challenge, but this is clearly a defense that isn’t afraid to bring people.
If I’m Buffalo, I’m preparing all week for pressure.
0-for-12 — Philadelphia on third down
I don’t care who you’re playing, holding an NFL offense to zero conversions on 12 third downs is ridiculous.
The Rams kept Philadelphia from extending drives and then also went 3-for-4 stopping them on fourth down.
This might be where Buffalo’s offensive line becomes the biggest part of the game.
Give Josh time and I think there will be plays. Let Los Angeles consistently create third-and-long, and suddenly you’re playing exactly the type of game the Rams want.
582 — passing yards allowed
The Rams have allowed just 582 passing yards through four games, which puts their pass defense near the top of the NFL. They held Philadelphia to just 68 net passing yards Sunday.
That’s going to make the Josh Allen matchup a really good measuring stick.
Buffalo hasn’t played many games during the Josh era where I’m saying the opponent’s pass defense might actually be the strength of the matchup.
This could be one of them.
Rams Defense vs. Tight Ends
Through four games this season, the Rams have allowed 264 receiving yards to tight ends, averaging 66 yards per game, with two touchdowns surrendered. Over their last three games, opposing tight ends have recorded at least 67 receiving yards each time. This could be an opportunity for Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to make an impact against Los Angeles.
Rams Defensive EPA Per Play
The Rams rank third in the NFL in defensive EPA per play at -0.132. They are also allowing just 4.18 yards per play, the second-best mark in the league. Despite their struggles against tight ends, Los Angeles has one of the NFL’s most efficient defenses. Josh Allen and Joe Brady will need to find favorable matchups rather than rely on explosive plays.
The Last Time These Teams Met: The 44-42 Insanity
The last time the Bills played the Rams was December 8, 2024 in Los Angeles, and that game still annoys me because Buffalo scored 42 points and somehow spent most of the afternoon chasing the Rams.
Josh Allen was ridiculous. He accounted for 424 total yards and six touchdowns — three passing and three rushing — becoming the first player in NFL regular-season history to do that in the same game. Buffalo scored on six of its nine possessions, and once the offense got rolling, Los Angeles basically couldn’t stop it.
And they still lost 44-42.
This is also one of the games I think about whenever we have the larger Sean McDermott/Joe Brady conversation about how much Buffalo wants to run the football.
Because I remember coming away from that game pissed off at McDermott as he complained that the Bills didn’t run the football enough. The Bills had just scored 42 points. Josh Allen was doing completely insane Josh Allen things. The offense was not the reason they lost the game.
The defense was.
The Bills only had the football once all day while trailing by fewer than seven points after the opening stages of the game, because the defense could never create the stop that allowed the offense to actually catch up.
And this is where I think you can find some ammo for the theory that McDermott naturally wanted Joe Brady’s offense to remain more run-oriented.
If Josh Allen is on fire, let him be on fire.
Three Random Bills-Rams Memories
October 16, 1989 — Who the hell is Frank Reich?
This is probably my first real Bills-Rams memory, and I was a kid.
It was Monday Night Football. The game started at 9:00, which already felt like the middle of the night when you’re nine years old, and the Rams came into Rich Stadium undefeated at 5-0. Jim Kelly wasn’t playing, and instead Buffalo was starting some backup quarterback named Frank Reich.
My memory of it is basically that nobody thought the Bills were winning this game.
I certainly didn’t.
Los Angeles was undefeated, Jim Everett was the quarterback, they had Flipper Anderson and Henry Ellard, and Buffalo had this guy Reich making his first NFL start.
The Rams led 10-6 going into the fourth quarter, and then everything got nuts.
Buffalo eventually went ahead 16-13 on a one-yard touchdown pass from Reich to Thurman Thomas. Then after the Bills fumbled after trying to run out the clock, Jim Everett hit Flipper Anderson for a 78-yard touchdown, and now the Rams were back ahead 20-16.
Game over, right?
Nope.
Reich took Buffalo back down the field and hit Andre Reed for an eight-yard touchdown with 16 seconds left. Bills win, 23-20.
And this was years before the Houston comeback.
Before Frank Reich became synonymous with the biggest comeback in NFL history, he was already doing Frank Reich stuff on Monday Night Football against an undefeated Rams team.
September 6, 1992 — Thurman scores four, Lofton makes history and Steve Tasker kills somebody
Buffalo won 40-7 at Rich Stadium. Thurman Thomas scored four touchdowns, rushing for three and catching another from Jim Kelly. He finished with 103 rushing yards, and Buffalo was up 27-7 by halftime.
This was peak Bills football.
They had already been to two straight Super Bowls, everybody knew who they were, and sometimes they would just run somebody out of the stadium.
But the thing I always remember about this game is James Lofton.
Lofton entered the game chasing Steve Largent’s all-time NFL receiving yardage record, and he finally broke it on what might have been one of the most boring record-breaking plays ever.
A four-yard catch.
That’s it.
Buffalo is destroying the Rams, Lofton catches a little four-yard pass late in the game, and suddenly he becomes the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards.
Four yards. Not gonna lie…kind of weak record breaking if you ask me. Reminds me of when Reed became the 2nd in NFL history in catches and was pissed off because they threw screen passes at him in the final moments of his last regular season game in Buffalo.
And then there is Steve Tasker.
Whenever you see any type of footage of Tasker on ESPN or NFL films, the hit on Vernon Turner is like the 2nd clip they show. You’ve definitely seen it.
The other story point was this Chuck Knox was coming back to Buffalo to coach against his former team. Hey, welcome back! Here’s 40. The defeat was the worst loss Knox had in 19 years. I don’t know how Bills fans think of Knox in terms of sticking the middle finger up to Ralph and quitting as this was before my time. Also, is Knox the only ex-Bills head coach to face Buffalo while coaching 2 different teams? Someone Google if the Bills faced Mularkey with the Jags and Titans.
So that game had Thurman scoring four touchdowns, James Lofton becoming the NFL’s all-time receiving leader and Steve Tasker trying to take somebody’s head off.
Pretty good season opener.
October 9, 2016 — The Tyrod-Rex Bills go into Los Angeles
This one feels like it happened about 40 years ago even though it really wasn’t that long ago.
Rex Ryan was coaching the Bills.
Tyrod Taylor was the quarterback.
LeSean McCoy was the running back.
Jeff Fisher was coaching the Rams.
And the Rams had just returned to Los Angeles.
Jared Goff had already been drafted first overall, which is probably why I remembered him being involved in this game, but he wasn’t starting yet. Case Keenum was the quarterback.
Buffalo went into the Coliseum and won 30-19.
And Shady was awesome.
McCoy rushed for 150-plus yards, while Tyrod only threw for 124. This was a very Rex Ryan-era Bills victory. Run the ball, play defense, make enough plays at quarterback and try not to screw anything up.
The biggest play came from Nickell Robey-Coleman. This was a year after Robey decided to add Coleman to his last name. So this isn’t the Nickell Robey game…it is the Nickell Robey-Coleman game..
With the game tied 16-16 in the third quarter, Robey-Coleman jumped a Case Keenum pass and took it 41 yards for a touchdown. Buffalo suddenly led 23-16. The Rams kicked another field goal to make it 23-19, but they eventually tried a fake punt that went nowhere.
Buffalo took over, Shady ripped off another big run, and Tyrod hit Marquise Goodwin for a six-yard touchdown to put it away.
Bills win, 30-19.
Of course, while looking through the archives, Jerry Sullivan who had a giant man crush on Fitzpatrick but had a never-ending hard on against Tyrod Taylor, decided to take out his red pen.
Such a random snapshot of that era.
Rex Ryan. Tyrod Taylor. Case Keenum. Jeff Fisher. Nickell Robey-Coleman. The Coliseum.
And somehow it was only ten years ago.
That’s what I like about doing these Rams memories because there really isn’t some massive Bills-Rams rivalry.
There isn’t one defining playoff game or decades of hatred between the teams.
Instead, you get these completely random little snapshots of Bills history.
You get nine-year-old me staying up for Monday Night Football wondering who the hell Frank Reich was.
You get Thurman Thomas scoring four touchdowns while James Lofton quietly becomes the NFL’s all-time receiving leader and Steve Tasker tries to kill a punt returner.
Then you jump ahead 24 years and somehow Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor are beating Jeff Fisher and Case Keenum at the Los Angeles Coliseum.
Now it’s Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay on Monday night.
Different era.
Same two teams.
And hopefully one more random Bills-Rams game worth remembering….but I don’t think it will be.
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Good memory pull on the 2016 (10 years ago today) Rams game, the sun drenched Coliseum had some aesthetics that are sorely missed in this league.
I remember this game watching at Bills Backers at The Harp in Boston. "Closer" by The Chainsmokers just came out and the DJ practically had it on repeat during the commercials. The early game was the start of the Tom Brady Revenge Tour, watching w/ my Pats friends I was probably pretty hammered by the second half of the Bills game. lol
It was a good vibes day by drought standards.