Every year Pat Moran and I do Bills predictions on Talking Buffalo and every year the idea is pretty simple: make a bunch of guesses before the season, argue about them, then come back months later and see which one of us looked like an idiot.
This year we went through 32 predictions covering Josh Allen, James Cook, DJ Moore, Keon Coleman, the defense, special teams, the Super Bowl and a bunch of player superlatives. Pat actually admitted before we started that he had done basically no prep, which shocked absolutely nobody.
What follows is the cleaned-up version of that conversation. I cut out most of the beer reviews, cat drama, sponsor reads, live-chat detours and the other nonsense we inevitably wandered into, but kept the actual predictions, reasoning and enough ball-busting so it still sounds like us. And, most importantly, we’re keeping the receipts. At the end of the season, we’ll go back through all 32 and see who got what right. If you want us unfiltered, you can listen to us from this past week.
Talking Buffalo — 2026 Bills Predictions
PAT: All right, let’s get going here. Number one.
1. Will James Cook rush for more than 1,400 yards this season?
JOE: No. I think this is going to be a much more pass-happy offense. I’m going to talk about whether Sean McDermott was kind of the governor on Joe Brady and made him run the offense he wanted. Even going back to Carolina, it felt like Brady wanted to pass the ball more.
I think Cook’s numbers are going to go down because they’re going to throw more and be much more aggressive. I also think the defense might take a step back, so maybe you get more shootouts. I don’t think he gets over 1,400.
PAT: I agree. He ran for 1,621 last year and led the league, but I think a lot of fans actually want them throwing more. I think it’ll be close, but I have him around 1,200 to 1,300 yards.
JOE: So you’re saying no?
PAT: Correct.
JOE: I have to mark this because you didn’t do any prep.
2. Will Josh Allen throw for more than 4,000 yards?
JOE: Yes. I think they’re going to be more aggressive this year. You get DJ Moore, and the goal is to throw more. Even if you don’t believe they’re going to throw more, Moore should open things up for Shakir, Kincaid, Dawson Knox… everybody.
PAT: I’m going to agree. He hasn’t done it the last two years, but he did it four years in a row before that. I’m saying yes.
3. Will Josh Allen account for 40 or more total touchdowns?
JOE: Yes.
PAT: Yes. He’s done it a bunch of years, and the only reason he didn’t last year was basically Dawson Knox dropping that pass in the end zone against Cleveland that would’ve given him 40.
4. Will DJ Moore lead the Bills in receiving yards?
JOE: Yes.
PAT: Yeah, this was a wimpy question. You should be fired for even putting this one on here.
JOE: You didn’t help me with the questions, asshole.
PAT: I’m changing it. Let’s say this: Will DJ Moore have at least 1,100 receiving yards?
JOE: Yes.
PAT: Yeah, I think so too. A lot of summer stuff turns out to be a big fat nothing burger. As much as I can’t stand when you talk about how meaningless training camp is, you’re right about a lot of it. But the chemistry I saw between Josh and DJ Moore looked legit. He’s going to be the clear-cut No. 1 receiver.
5. Will Khalil Shakir have more than 75 receptions?
JOE: No. It’s close because that’s only around four-and-a-half catches a game, but I’m saying no.
PAT: This is the first one we disagree on. I’m saying yes, but not by much. His career high is 76 and he had 72 last year. My concern is the injury and if he’s missing games, I could change my answer. But assuming he’s healthy, put me down for yes.
JOE: So yes, but you’re scared.
PAT: I’m concerned about the injury.
6. Will Keon Coleman have at least 650 receiving yards?
JOE: No. I don’t know if I’m buying the comeback. He has to prove it to us and I’m not basing this on August practices, quotes or anything else. Show me when the games count.
PAT: I’m going to agree. Until he shows more than a flash or two, I just don’t believe in him that much.
I think there are going to be weeks where he has 50 or 60 yards, maybe even a big game, and then there’ll be weeks where he has one catch for eight yards. Josh Palmer is going to play and Skyler Bell will get worked in. I don’t really care what Coleman’s final numbers are as much as I want him making big plays in big moments. Give me something like 35 catches, big yards per catch and seven touchdowns. Use that big body in the red zone.
7. Will Dalton Kincaid have 70 or more receptions?
JOE: No. Health is a concern, and adding DJ Moore is going to take targets too. Last year I had Kincaid leading the team in catches and he was on his way before he got hurt. I don’t care how good his quads supposedly look in training camp. I’m not buying anything until I see it.
PAT: I’m saying no too, but I think he’s going to be good. Maybe 60 to 69 catches, around 800 yards and some big plays. Outside of Josh Allen, I think Kincaid is the biggest X-factor on the offense.
JOE: This is a huge year for him. It’s basically a do-or-die year in terms of getting that next contract.
8. Will Kincaid and Dawson Knox combine for at least 12 receiving touchdowns?
JOE: No.
PAT: No. They had nine combined last year. I love the Bills’ tight end room, but 12 is a lot.
JOE: I also think this might be the last year where Knox and Kincaid are together. Jackson Hawes could eventually become that second tight end.
9. Will Ray Davis rush for more than 400 yards?
JOE: No. Obviously, if James Cook gets hurt, then he probably does. But they have Ty Johnson as the third-down guy and Davis has a role returning kicks, so I’m saying no.
PAT: I’m actually going to say yes. If he gets another meaningless Week 18 game against the Jets, he might get a third of those yards in one afternoon. He only had 275 last year, but around 150 came against the Jets.
10. Will the Bills finish in the top five in the NFL in scoring?
JOE: Yes.
PAT: Yes. They were tied for fourth last year, so I’m with you.
DEFENSE
11. Will Greg Rousseau record 10 or more sacks?
JOE: Goddammit, yes. I’m going to ball-wash Jim Leonhard a little bit here. Something has to give and I think this is going to be a high-risk, high-reward defense, kind of like that Mike Pettine defense where they got a bunch of sacks but gave up some big plays. He’s finally getting over 10. It’s going to fucking happen.
PAT: I’m saying no. Rousseau is a very good defensive end. He’s one of the best edge setters in football and gets pressures. I just don’t think he’s a sack artist. His career high is eight, and I don’t know that suddenly changes now.
JOE: But nobody under McDermott really put up huge sack numbers. I think that’s part of the system and Leonhard is going to be more aggressive.
PAT: I’m still saying no.
12. Will Bradley Chubb record at least eight sacks?
JOE: Yes. Again, I think this defense is going to get sacks. They’re also going to give up some big plays, but if Chubb stays healthy, he’s going to get to the quarterback.
PAT: I’m saying yes too.
13. Will any Bills defender finish with 10-plus sacks?
JOE: Obviously yes, because I just picked Rousseau.
PAT: I’m saying no. I think Bradley Chubb leads the team with somewhere around eight or nine. I think this becomes the defensive version of “everybody eats.” Oliver, Walker, Parker, Rousseau, Chubb, Bernard and you’re going to have a lot of guys with four, five, six, seven, eight sacks.
JOE: I disagree. I don’t think the rotation is going to be as big as you think. Leonhard is going to lean on the established guys and the guys they specifically brought in.
PAT: If somebody does get 10, my money would be on Chubb.
14. Will Christian Benford make the Pro Bowl?
JOE: No. I’m curious how he’s going to adjust to this defense. If the corners are going to be left more isolated and playing more man-to-man, I don’t know if Benford is going to be the same player he was in a zone-heavy defense. I think he could struggle this year.
PAT: Now that’s a hot take. I say no to the Pro Bowl too, but for completely different reasons. I think he’s going to have his best season. The problem is you’re competing with guys like Patrick Surtain, Derek Stingley and Christian Gonzalez. He can have a Pro Bowl-caliber season without actually making the team.
15. Will Cole Bishop record at least four interceptions?
JOE: Yes. I think he’s one of the most underrated players on this defense. If Leonhard is disguising coverages and blitzing more, quarterbacks are going to be pressured into mistakes. Bishop could benefit from that. And Leonhard was a safety and maybe this is cliche, but coaches tend to care about the position they played.
PAT: I’m with you. I think he gets four. We’ll talk about Bishop more later.
16. Will C.J. Gardner-Johnson lead the Bills in interceptions?
JOE: No. He’s getting kicked off the team by the end of the year.
I’m joking… kind of.
PAT: I’m saying no too. I’m a little worried about the injuries. He’s had a lot of interceptions in his career, so it’s certainly possible. But with him, I could see him being a Pro Bowler or being on the Colts by Week 6. Neither outcome would shock me.
The opportunity is obviously there because he’s had six interceptions multiple times, but I’m going to play the odds and say somebody else leads them.
17. Will the Bills defense record at least 45 sacks?
JOE: I originally wrote no, but because of the alcohol, I’m changing it to yes. I’m telling you: they’re going to blitz. They’re going to get after quarterbacks and they’re also going to give up some big plays, but I think they’re getting over 45.
PAT: I actually think they can get to 45 too and I don’t think one guy is going to get a ton, but I think they’ll have some big sack games.
18. Will the Bills force at least 25 turnovers?
JOE: Yes. I’ve been saying it all night: this is going to be a big-play defense.They’ll give up big plays and they’ll make big plays.
PAT: I’m with you. They had 20 last year, so five more isn’t crazy. If they’re more aggressive, the turnovers should increase.
19. Will Jim Leonhard’s defense finish in the top 10 in points allowed?
JOE: Absolutely not. Again, high risk, high reward. They’re going to give up points, but they’re also going to get turnovers and sacks.
PAT: I agree again. Goddammit. They were 12th last year. I think there will be games where this defense looks dominant, and then they’ll have games where they get torched. You could see some 41-38 type games this year.
20. Will the Bills allow fewer than 4.5 yards per rush?
JOE: No. They don’t have enough beefy fat guys up front. If you’re going to this type of defense, I want fat guys in the middle. They don’t have Ted Washington. They don’t have Pat Williams.
I know I’m living in 2001, but I want the fat guy.
PAT: I disagree. I think they’ll allow fewer than 4.5. Rousseau is a good run defender. Deone Walker should improve. They’ve added guys specifically to stop the run. They gave up over five yards per carry last year. I think stopping the run was a huge priority.
SPECIAL TEAMS
21. Will Tyler Bass make at least 85 percent of his field goals?
JOE: No. He’s getting cut by Week 8. I have no confidence in him. If you ask me what part of this roster I trust the least, it’s Tyler Bass. I think that Chiefs miss is still in his head. I think Bass is cooked.
PAT: I’m saying yes.He was at 82.8 percent last year and missed five extra points the year before, which was brutal. But I think he’s going to be fine. If he misses a crucial kick in the first couple weeks, though, the pitchforks are coming out.
22. Will the Bills score a kickoff- or punt-return touchdown?
JOE: Yes. They have Ray Davis, and I think they’ll break one. I don’t even know who the punt returner is. Just let Davis do both.
PAT: I’m saying no, mostly so I can disagree with you.
JOE: Elite analysis.
TEAM PREDICTIONS
23. Will the Bills win the AFC East?
JOE: Yes.
PAT: Yes. New England is good and they’re the defending AFC champions, which is still weird to say. But they have a much harder schedule this season and I still think Buffalo is the better football team and the best team in the division.
24. Will the Bills win at least 12 regular-season games?
JOE: Yes. As much as I complain about them on the podcast, my Substack, Twitter, TikTok — wherever — they’re always going to be good with Josh Allen.
PAT: Yes, but I could see a rough start. Look at that early stretch: Rams on the road, Houston on the road, Chargers, Detroit. They could easily be 3-3 after six games and it wouldn’t shock me. Then I think they find their groove.
25. Will the Buffalo Bills reach the Super Bowl?
JOE: No. I don’t think I’ve picked them to make the Super Bowl since maybe 2022 when they signed Von Miller. And you’re going to say yes because you’re a panderer. You’re going to pander to the Mafia Babes and Del Reid and everybody else.
PAT: Yes. I have the Bills going to the Super Bowl. I think this is the year. Josh Allen is going to be locked in. DJ Moore brings something different to the offense.
And I think the defense is going to be better when it matters in January because they’re going to dictate things instead of waiting for the offense to dictate to them.
JOE: I have Denver going to the Super Bowl. Denver-Rams. I think Buffalo gets back to the AFC Championship Game and loses again, and then you and I are miserable.
PAT: I have Bills-Rams.
PLAYER SUPERLATIVES
26. Who will be the Bills’ Rookie of the Year?
JOE: Caleb rookie LB Guy. I still can’t say his name half the time. I think eventually he’s going to take over some of Dorian Williams’ role. That’s my prediction.
PAT: I’m going TJ Parker.I think he’ll play plenty, get four or five sacks, make some run stops and pressures. Not a great rookie season, but a good one.
I still wouldn’t have drafted him where they did, but I think he’ll be pretty good.
27. Which Bills player will be the biggest disappointment?
JOE: Terrel Bernard. I feel like he might be a one-I’m hit wonder. He’s a good blitzing linebacker because he’s fast and can shoot through a hole, but physically I’m worried about him. I think he’s going to get hurt, and I think he’s going to be the biggest disappointment.
PAT: I’m going C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
There are high expectations for him. People are expecting this Bishop/Gardner-Johnson pairing to be some version of Poyer and Hyde.
He’s already been banged up, and his track record is that he’s a great player but eventually wears out his welcome. I don’t know when that happens, but I’m making the guess that things don’t go as smoothly as people expect.
28. Which Bills player will be the biggest surprise?
JOE: Maxwell Hairston.
I think he matches this defense. He’s fast and physical, and if they’re going to put corners on islands, that’s the type of player you want. I know you and the Pittsford Dairy crew thought he looked like shit all summer, but I think he’s going to surprise people.
PAT: I clearly disagree. My answer is IGB. I think at some point he’s going to become a starter in this defense and be pretty solid. It might take half the season before he’s playing a lot, but I think eventually that day comes.
29. Who will be the Bills’ offensive MVP other than Josh Allen?
JOE: DJ Moore. I think he’s going to have a really good year. He’s the best wide receiver they’ve had since Stefon Diggs. Last year it was James Cook. I think Moore takes over as the second-best offensive player.
PAT: James Cook. I don’t think he’s going to lead the league in rushing again, but I think he could become a much bigger weapon in the passing game. If you asked me who the biggest star on this roster is besides Josh Allen, Cook is probably the first name I’d give you.
30. Who will be the Bills’ defensive MVP?
JOE: Greg Rousseau. The guy you hate because he changed his jersey number.
PAT: I don’t hate him because he changed his number. I’m going Ed Oliver. I think he’s going to be a big playmaker in this defense, and if he stays healthy, I think this is the year he puts a lot of it together.
31. Which Bills player will have the biggest breakout season?
JOE: Greg Rousseau. This is apparently the year where every answer I have is Greg Rousseau.
Thirteen-and-a-half sacks. Hot take, baby.
PAT: Cole Bishop. By the end of the year, I think the league is going to know who he is. I think he’s going to be in serious Pro Bowl conversation.
So you say Groot. I say Cole Bishop.
32. Which player will see his role decrease the most?
JOE: Josh Palmer. I think they’re going to play a lot of two-tight-end sets, and it’s going to be harder for him to get on the field. He’s also been hurt. I think they really want to prove Keon Coleman can be good, so they’re going to keep giving Keon opportunities.
PAT: I think the opposite on Palmer. He was one of the five most impressive players I saw this summer. He caught everything and looked fast. I’m cheating and giving you two names: Keon Coleman and Maxwell Hairston.
I think Skyler Bell could eventually take opportunities away from Coleman. And I think Hairston has a short leash, with IGB potentially becoming the starter opposite Christian Benford within four to six games.
JOE: Keon Coleman isn’t a veteran.
PAT: He’s in his third year. He’s a veteran.
JOE: No he’s fucking not. You’re not a veteran on your rookie contract.
PAT: If you’re not a rookie, you’re a veteran. That’s one of your dumbest takes ever.
JOE: Says the guy who eats chicken fingers with a fork. Podfather would denounce you for this veteran take.
PAT: Whatever. You have Palmer. I have Coleman and Hairston.
JOE: Fine. And that’s 32.